Le Puy Foot vs Diables Noirs Prediction & Betting Tips 14/11/2026

Le Puy Foot vs Diables Noirs preview

In the Coupe de France match between Le Puy Foot and Diables Noirs, the 1X2 probabilities show Le Puy Foot at 41%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 13%. Le Puy Foot has a slight edge in expected goals at 1.18 compared to Diables Noirs' 0.90.

However, the confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty in the match outcome. Both teams to score stands at 42%, which suggests a chance for goals from both sides, while Over 2.5 goals is at 34%. If Diables Noirs can improve their performance, they could challenge Le Puy Foot's advantage.

Le Puy Foot vs Diables Noirs: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Le Puy Foot	Draw	Diables Noirs
Model	41%	32%	27%
Market	—	—	—
Published	41%	32%	27%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Le Puy Foot and Diables Noirs expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.18Le Puy Foot

0.90Diables Noirs

Total expected goals: 2.08
Attack rating (Le Puy Foot / Diables Noirs): 0.96 / 1.00
Defence rating (Le Puy Foot / Diables Noirs): 0.47 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Le Puy Foot vs Diables Noirs score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.8% 9.9% 5.0% 1.5% 0.4% 1 13.5% 14.6% 6.0% 1.8% 0.5% 2 8.7% 7.8% 3.5% 1.1% 0.3% 3 3.4% 3.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 1.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: Le Puy Foot goals. Columns: Diables Noirs goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Le Puy Foot vs Diables Noirs goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%

Over 1.5 63%

Over 2.5 34%

Over 3.5 16%

Both teams to score: 42%
No goals (0–0): 14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Le Puy Foot vs Diables Noirs

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Le Puy Foot	41%	2.44
	Draw	32%	3.09
	Diables Noirs	27%	3.77
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	34%	2.90
	Under 2.5	66%	1.53
Both teams to score	Yes	42%	2.36
	No	58%	1.74
Double chance	1X (Le Puy Foot or draw)	73%	1.36
	12 (either side)	68%	1.48
	X2 (draw or Diables Noirs)	59%	1.70
Handicap -1	Le Puy Foot win by 2+	18%	5.47
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer