Sporting Baie-Mahault vs Siroco Les Abymes preview
In the Coupe de France match between Sporting Baie-Mahault and Siroco Les Abymes, the probabilities show Siroco Les Abymes at 53% to win, while Sporting Baie-Mahault stands at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with both teams expected to score, as indicated by the 61% chance for both teams to score and for Over 2.5 goals.
Sporting Baie-Mahault has a historical edge with 2 wins in their last 6 encounters, but Siroco Les Abymes has shown stronger recent form with an expected goals figure of 1.93 compared to 1.23 for Baie-Mahault. The confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty, which could affect the outcome.
Sporting Baie-Mahault vs Siroco Les Abymes: model vs market
| Source | Sporting Baie-Mahault | Draw | Siroco Les Abymes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23% | 24% | 53% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 23% | 24% | 53% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.23.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Sporting Baie-Mahault and Siroco Les Abymes expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.15
- Attack rating (Sporting Baie-Mahault / Siroco Les Abymes)
- 1.00 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Sporting Baie-Mahault / Siroco Les Abymes)
- 1.00 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sporting Baie-Mahault vs Siroco Les Abymes score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sporting Baie-Mahault goals. Columns: Siroco Les Abymes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sporting Baie-Mahault vs Siroco Les Abymes goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sporting Baie-Mahault vs Siroco Les Abymes
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting Baie-Mahault | 23% | 4.32 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.14 | |
| Siroco Les Abymes | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.57 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sporting Baie-Mahault or draw) | 47% | 2.11 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Siroco Les Abymes) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Handicap -1 | Siroco Les Abymes win by 2+ | 31% | 3.22 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Sporting Baie-Mahault vs Siroco Les Abymes head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Sporting Baie-Mahault 2 · draws 3 · Siroco Les Abymes 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-01 | Siroco Les Abymes | 1-1 | Sporting Baie-Mahault | Division d'Honneur |
| 2024-11-24 | Sporting Baie-Mahault | 2-0 | Siroco Les Abymes | Division d'Honneur |
| 2024-05-11 | Sporting Baie-Mahault | 0-1 | Siroco Les Abymes | Division d'Honneur |
| 2024-01-13 | Siroco Les Abymes | 0-1 | Sporting Baie-Mahault | Division d'Honneur |
| 2023-05-06 | Siroco Les Abymes | 0-0 | Sporting Baie-Mahault | Division d'Honneur |
| 2023-03-25 | Sporting Baie-Mahault | 3-3 | Siroco Les Abymes | Division d'Honneur |
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