Castelbourgeois vs Nantes Prediction & Betting Tips 15/11/2026

Castelbourgeois vs Nantes preview

In the Coupe de France match between Castelbourgeois and Nantes, the 1X2 probabilities show Nantes at 43% to win, compared to Castelbourgeois at 28% and a draw at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 10% chance of occurring.

Nantes has a recent form of D-L-L-D-W-L, while Castelbourgeois' form is not available. The expected goals are 1.12 for Castelbourgeois and 1.42 for Nantes, suggesting a competitive match. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 47%, and both teams to score is at 52%, indicating potential for scoring but also uncertainty in the outcome.

Castelbourgeois vs Nantes: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Castelbourgeois	Draw	Nantes
Model	28%	29%	43%
Market	—	—	—
Published	28%	29%	43%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 1.12.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Castelbourgeois and Nantes expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.12Castelbourgeois

1.42Nantes

Total expected goals: 2.54
Attack rating (Castelbourgeois / Nantes): 1.00 / 0.74
Defence rating (Castelbourgeois / Nantes): 1.00 / 0.91

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Castelbourgeois vs Nantes score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.2% 10.0% 8.0% 3.8% 1.8% 1 7.6% 13.8% 8.9% 4.2% 2.0% 2 4.9% 7.0% 5.0% 2.4% 1.1% 3 1.8% 2.6% 1.9% 0.9% 0.4% 4+ 0.7% 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2%

Rows: Castelbourgeois goals. Columns: Nantes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Castelbourgeois vs Nantes goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%

Over 1.5 73%

Over 2.5 47%

Over 3.5 25%

Both teams to score: 52%
No goals (0–0): 9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Castelbourgeois vs Nantes

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Castelbourgeois	28%	3.52
	Draw	29%	3.46
	Nantes	43%	2.34
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	47%	2.15
	Under 2.5	53%	1.87
Both teams to score	Yes	52%	1.91
	No	48%	2.10
Double chance	1X (Castelbourgeois or draw)	57%	1.74
	12 (either side)	71%	1.41
	X2 (draw or Nantes)	72%	1.40
Handicap -1	Nantes win by 2+	21%	4.74
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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