Chalon vs Hauts Lyonnais preview
In the Coupe de France fixture between Chalon and Hauts Lyonnais, the 1X2 probabilities show Hauts Lyonnais at 43%, while Chalon stands at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 13% probability. Chalon has an expected goals figure of 0.93, compared to Hauts Lyonnais at 1.27, indicating a potential advantage for the visitors.
Chalon's recent form includes a loss followed by a win, while Hauts Lyonnais has a more stable record with one loss, two draws, and two wins. The Over 2.5 goals probability is 38%, and both teams to score sits at 45%. This suggests that while a low-scoring match is likely, the possibility of goals from both sides could still emerge, depending on their performance on the day.
Chalon vs Hauts Lyonnais: model vs market
| Source | Chalon | Draw | Hauts Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 31% | 43% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 26% | 31% | 43% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.27 vs 0.93.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Chalon and Hauts Lyonnais expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.20
- Attack rating (Chalon / Hauts Lyonnais)
- 0.97 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Chalon / Hauts Lyonnais)
- 0.81 / 0.78
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Chalon vs Hauts Lyonnais score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Chalon goals. Columns: Hauts Lyonnais goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Chalon vs Hauts Lyonnais goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Chalon vs Hauts Lyonnais
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chalon | 26% | 3.88 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.21 | |
| Hauts Lyonnais | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.66 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.60 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.23 |
| No | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Chalon or draw) | 57% | 1.76 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or Hauts Lyonnais) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hauts Lyonnais win by 2+ | 20% | 4.97 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Chalon and Hauts Lyonnais recent form
Chalon
1W 0D 1L
Hauts Lyonnais
2W 3D 1L
Last 2 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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