Châteaubriant vs Horizon Patho Prediction & Betting Tips 14/11/2026

Châteaubriant vs Horizon Patho preview

In the Coupe de France fixture, Châteaubriant faces Horizon Patho, with a 1X2 probability of 23% for Châteaubriant, 24% for a draw, and 53% for Horizon Patho. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which reflects the expected goals of 1.23 for Châteaubriant and 1.93 for Horizon Patho.

Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals both stand at 61%, indicating a strong potential for an open match. However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting that unexpected outcomes could occur, particularly if Châteaubriant exceeds their expected goals or if Horizon Patho underperforms.

Châteaubriant vs Horizon Patho: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Châteaubriant	Draw	Horizon Patho
Model	23%	24%	53%
Market	—	—	—
Published	23%	24%	53%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.23.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Châteaubriant and Horizon Patho expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.23Châteaubriant

1.93Horizon Patho

Total expected goals: 3.15
Attack rating (Châteaubriant / Horizon Patho): 1.00 / 1.00
Defence rating (Châteaubriant / Horizon Patho): 1.00 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Châteaubriant vs Horizon Patho score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.3% 7.2% 7.9% 5.1% 3.8% 1 4.2% 11.1% 9.7% 6.2% 4.7% 2 3.2% 6.2% 6.0% 3.8% 2.9% 3 1.3% 2.5% 2.4% 1.6% 1.2% 4+ 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5%

Rows: Châteaubriant goals. Columns: Horizon Patho goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Châteaubriant vs Horizon Patho goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 83%

Over 2.5 61%

Over 3.5 39%

Both teams to score: 61%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Châteaubriant vs Horizon Patho

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Châteaubriant	23%	4.32
	Draw	24%	4.14
	Horizon Patho	53%	1.90
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	61%	1.64
	Under 2.5	39%	2.57
Both teams to score	Yes	61%	1.63
	No	39%	2.59
Double chance	1X (Châteaubriant or draw)	47%	2.11
	12 (either side)	76%	1.32
	X2 (draw or Horizon Patho)	77%	1.30
Handicap -1	Horizon Patho win by 2+	31%	3.22
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer