Chauny vs Le Pays du Valois Prediction & Betting Tips 14/11/2026

Chauny vs Le Pays du Valois preview

In the Coupe de France match between Chauny and Le Pays du Valois, the 1X2 probabilities show Le Pays du Valois at 53%, while Chauny is at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 10% chance. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 61%, indicating a strong likelihood of an open game.

Chauny has expected goals of 1.23, while Le Pays du Valois has 1.93. The confidence grade for this match is C, which suggests some uncertainty. If Chauny can exceed their expected goals or if Le Pays du Valois underperforms, the outcome could differ from the predictions.

Chauny vs Le Pays du Valois: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Chauny	Draw	Le Pays du Valois
Model	23%	24%	53%
Market	—	—	—
Published	23%	24%	53%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.23.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Chauny and Le Pays du Valois expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.23Chauny

1.93Le Pays du Valois

Total expected goals: 3.15
Attack rating (Chauny / Le Pays du Valois): 1.00 / 1.00
Defence rating (Chauny / Le Pays du Valois): 1.00 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Chauny vs Le Pays du Valois score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.3% 7.2% 7.9% 5.1% 3.8% 1 4.2% 11.1% 9.7% 6.2% 4.7% 2 3.2% 6.2% 6.0% 3.8% 2.9% 3 1.3% 2.5% 2.4% 1.6% 1.2% 4+ 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5%

Rows: Chauny goals. Columns: Le Pays du Valois goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Chauny vs Le Pays du Valois goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 83%

Over 2.5 61%

Over 3.5 39%

Both teams to score: 61%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Chauny vs Le Pays du Valois

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Chauny	23%	4.32
	Draw	24%	4.14
	Le Pays du Valois	53%	1.90
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	61%	1.64
	Under 2.5	39%	2.57
Both teams to score	Yes	61%	1.63
	No	39%	2.59
Double chance	1X (Chauny or draw)	47%	2.11
	12 (either side)	76%	1.32
	X2 (draw or Le Pays du Valois)	77%	1.30
Handicap -1	Le Pays du Valois win by 2+	31%	3.22
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer