Cheminots Paray vs Villefranche Prediction & Betting Tips 14/11/2026

Cheminots Paray vs Villefranche preview

In the Coupe de France match between Cheminots Paray and Villefranche, the 1X2 probabilities show Villefranche at 52%, while Cheminots Paray stands at 23%. Our model predicts a likely scoreline of 1-2, which aligns with Villefranche's expected goals of 1.81 compared to Cheminots Paray's 1.15.

There is a 57% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance for both teams to score. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty in the predictions. Factors like unexpected player performances or tactical changes could influence the outcome, making the match less predictable than the statistics suggest.

Cheminots Paray vs Villefranche: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Cheminots Paray	Draw	Villefranche
Model	23%	25%	52%
Market	—	—	—
Published	23%	25%	52%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.15.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Cheminots Paray and Villefranche expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.15Cheminots Paray

1.81Villefranche

Total expected goals: 2.96
Attack rating (Cheminots Paray / Villefranche): 1.00 / 0.94
Defence rating (Cheminots Paray / Villefranche): 1.00 / 0.94

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Cheminots Paray vs Villefranche score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.3% 8.3% 8.5% 5.1% 3.5% 1 4.9% 11.9% 9.8% 5.9% 4.0% 2 3.4% 6.2% 5.6% 3.4% 2.3% 3 1.3% 2.4% 2.2% 1.3% 0.9% 4+ 0.5% 0.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.3%

Rows: Cheminots Paray goals. Columns: Villefranche goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Cheminots Paray vs Villefranche goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 81%

Over 2.5 57%

Over 3.5 34%

Both teams to score: 58%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Cheminots Paray vs Villefranche

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Cheminots Paray	23%	4.32
	Draw	25%	3.96
	Villefranche	52%	1.94
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	57%	1.76
	Under 2.5	43%	2.32
Both teams to score	Yes	58%	1.72
	No	42%	2.40
Double chance	1X (Cheminots Paray or draw)	48%	2.07
	12 (either side)	75%	1.34
	X2 (draw or Villefranche)	77%	1.30
Handicap -1	Villefranche win by 2+	30%	3.38
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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