Cheruy vs Bourg-en-bresse 01 Prediction & Betting Tips 14/11/2026

Cheruy vs Bourg-en-bresse 01 preview

In the Coupe de France match between Cheruy and Bourg-en-bresse 01, the 1X2 probabilities show Cheruy at 32%, a draw at 24%, and Bourg-en-bresse 01 at 45%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance according to our model.

Both teams have a strong likelihood of scoring, with "both teams to score" at 69%, and "Over 2.5 goals" also at 69%. Cheruy has expected goals of 1.61, while Bourg-en-bresse 01 has 1.93. Factors like Cheruy's recent form, which is not available, could influence the outcome and make these predictions less reliable.

Cheruy vs Bourg-en-bresse 01: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Cheruy	Draw	Bourg-en-bresse 01
Model	32%	24%	45%
Market	—	—	—
Published	32%	24%	45%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.61.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Cheruy and Bourg-en-bresse 01 expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.61Cheruy

1.93Bourg-en-bresse 01

Total expected goals: 3.54
Attack rating (Cheruy / Bourg-en-bresse 01): 1.00 / 1.00
Defence rating (Cheruy / Bourg-en-bresse 01): 1.00 / 1.31

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Cheruy vs Bourg-en-bresse 01 score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.8% 4.7% 5.4% 3.5% 2.6% 1 3.8% 9.9% 8.7% 5.6% 4.2% 2 3.7% 7.2% 7.0% 4.5% 3.4% 3 2.0% 3.9% 3.8% 2.4% 1.8% 4+ 1.2% 2.2% 2.2% 1.4% 1.0%

Rows: Cheruy goals. Columns: Bourg-en-bresse 01 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Cheruy vs Bourg-en-bresse 01 goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%

Over 1.5 88%

Over 2.5 69%

Over 3.5 47%

Both teams to score: 69%
No goals (0–0): 4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Cheruy vs Bourg-en-bresse 01

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Cheruy	32%	3.17
	Draw	24%	4.23
	Bourg-en-bresse 01	45%	2.23
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	69%	1.46
	Under 2.5	31%	3.19
Both teams to score	Yes	69%	1.44
	No	31%	3.26
Double chance	1X (Cheruy or draw)	55%	1.81
	12 (either side)	76%	1.31
	X2 (draw or Bourg-en-bresse 01)	68%	1.46
Handicap -1	Bourg-en-bresse 01 win by 2+	26%	3.92
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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