Choisy au Bac vs Caen Prediction & Betting Tips 14/11/2026

Choisy au Bac vs Caen preview

In the Coupe de France match between Choisy au Bac and Caen, the 1X2 probabilities show Caen at 70%, while Choisy au Bac sits at 13%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with Caen's expected goals of 2.75 compared to Choisy au Bac's 1.17.

With a high probability of Over 2.5 goals at 75% and both teams to score at 65%, the match could see multiple goals. However, if Choisy au Bac performs better than expected or if Caen's recent form falters, these predictions could change. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the forecast.

Choisy au Bac vs Caen: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Choisy au Bac	Draw	Caen
Model	13%	17%	70%
Market	—	—	—
Published	13%	17%	70%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.75 vs 1.17.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Choisy au Bac and Caen expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.17Choisy au Bac

2.75Caen

Total expected goals: 3.92
Attack rating (Choisy au Bac / Caen): 1.00 / 1.43
Defence rating (Choisy au Bac / Caen): 1.00 / 0.95

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Choisy au Bac vs Caen score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.6% 4.8% 7.5% 6.9% 9.3% 1 1.7% 7.0% 8.8% 8.1% 10.8% 2 1.3% 3.7% 5.1% 4.7% 6.3% 3 0.5% 1.4% 2.0% 1.8% 2.4% 4+ 0.2% 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 0.9%

Rows: Choisy au Bac goals. Columns: Caen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Choisy au Bac vs Caen goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 91%

Over 2.5 75%

Over 3.5 55%

Both teams to score: 65%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Choisy au Bac vs Caen

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Choisy au Bac	13%	7.72
	Draw	17%	5.89
	Caen	70%	1.43
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	75%	1.33
	Under 2.5	25%	4.00
Both teams to score	Yes	65%	1.54
	No	35%	2.86
Double chance	1X (Choisy au Bac or draw)	30%	3.34
	12 (either side)	83%	1.20
	X2 (draw or Caen)	87%	1.15
Handicap -1	Caen win by 2+	50%	1.99
	Push (exactly one goal)	20%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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