CPB Brequigny vs Montluçon Prediction & Betting Tips 14/11/2026

CPB Brequigny vs Montluçon preview

In the Coupe de France match between CPB Brequigny and Montluçon, the 1X2 probabilities show Montluçon at 53%, while CPB Brequigny stands at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 10% chance of occurring.

Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 61%, indicating a strong potential for an open game. However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty around the outcome. If CPB Brequigny can exceed their expected goals of 1.23, it could change the dynamics of the match.

CPB Brequigny vs Montluçon: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	CPB Brequigny	Draw	Montluçon
Model	23%	24%	53%
Market	—	—	—
Published	23%	24%	53%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.23.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

CPB Brequigny and Montluçon expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.23CPB Brequigny

1.93Montluçon

Total expected goals: 3.15
Attack rating (CPB Brequigny / Montluçon): 1.00 / 1.00
Defence rating (CPB Brequigny / Montluçon): 1.00 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

CPB Brequigny vs Montluçon score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.3% 7.2% 7.9% 5.1% 3.8% 1 4.2% 11.1% 9.7% 6.2% 4.7% 2 3.2% 6.2% 6.0% 3.8% 2.9% 3 1.3% 2.5% 2.4% 1.6% 1.2% 4+ 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5%

Rows: CPB Brequigny goals. Columns: Montluçon goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

CPB Brequigny vs Montluçon goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 83%

Over 2.5 61%

Over 3.5 39%

Both teams to score: 61%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for CPB Brequigny vs Montluçon

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	CPB Brequigny	23%	4.32
	Draw	24%	4.14
	Montluçon	53%	1.90
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	61%	1.64
	Under 2.5	39%	2.57
Both teams to score	Yes	61%	1.63
	No	39%	2.59
Double chance	1X (CPB Brequigny or draw)	47%	2.11
	12 (either side)	76%	1.32
	X2 (draw or Montluçon)	77%	1.30
Handicap -1	Montluçon win by 2+	31%	3.22
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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