Firminy vs Annecy Prediction & Betting Tips 14/11/2026

Firminy vs Annecy preview

In the Coupe de France fixture between Firminy and Annecy, the 1X2 probabilities show Annecy at 52%, while Firminy is at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 10% chance according to our model. Annecy's expected goals stand at 1.85, compared to Firminy's 1.17, indicating a potential advantage for the visitors.

Both teams to score is at 59%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 58%, suggesting a likelihood of an open game. However, Firminy's recent form is not available, which could impact their performance. Annecy's recent results include two wins and four losses, which may affect their confidence heading into this match.

Firminy vs Annecy: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Firminy	Draw	Annecy
Model	23%	25%	52%
Market	—	—	—
Published	23%	25%	52%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.17.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Firminy and Annecy expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.17Firminy

1.85Annecy

Total expected goals: 3.02
Attack rating (Firminy / Annecy): 1.00 / 0.96
Defence rating (Firminy / Annecy): 1.00 / 0.95

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Firminy vs Annecy score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.9% 8.0% 8.4% 5.2% 3.6% 1 4.6% 11.6% 9.8% 6.0% 4.3% 2 3.3% 6.2% 5.7% 3.5% 2.5% 3 1.3% 2.4% 2.2% 1.4% 1.0% 4+ 0.5% 0.9% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4%

Rows: Firminy goals. Columns: Annecy goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Firminy vs Annecy goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 81%

Over 2.5 58%

Over 3.5 36%

Both teams to score: 59%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Firminy vs Annecy

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Firminy	23%	4.37
	Draw	25%	4.03
	Annecy	52%	1.91
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	58%	1.72
	Under 2.5	42%	2.39
Both teams to score	Yes	59%	1.69
	No	41%	2.45
Double chance	1X (Firminy or draw)	48%	2.10
	12 (either side)	75%	1.33
	X2 (draw or Annecy)	77%	1.30
Handicap -1	Annecy win by 2+	30%	3.30
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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