Updated

Coupe de France · 1/128-finals

Gobelins vs RED Star FC 93

· Stade Charlety, Paris

Alin prediction RED Star FC 93 to win

Cmodel only, no market odds

Predicted score 0 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
GobelinsDrawRED Star FC 93
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 1.09.
  • RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.

Gobelins vs RED Star FC 93 preview

In the Coupe de France fixture between Gobelins and RED Star FC 93, the model gives RED Star FC 93 a 45% chance to win, compared to Gobelins' 26% and a 28% chance for a draw. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.09 for Gobelins and 1.49 for RED Star FC 93.

Both teams to score stands at 53%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 48%. Gobelins' recent form shows a draw, while RED Star FC 93 has won two of their last three matches. A poor performance from RED Star FC 93 could lead to a different outcome than expected.

Gobelins vs RED Star FC 93: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGobelinsDrawRED Star FC 93
Model26%28%45%
Market———
Published26%28%45%
Edge———
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 1.09.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Gobelins and RED Star FC 93 expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.09Gobelins
1.49RED Star FC 93
Total expected goals
2.58
Attack rating (Gobelins / RED Star FC 93)
0.83 / 0.93
Defence rating (Gobelins / RED Star FC 93)
0.83 / 1.06

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Gobelins vs RED Star FC 93 score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.8% 10.1% 8.5% 4.2% 2.2% 1 7.0% 13.5% 9.2% 4.6% 2.4% 2 4.5% 6.7% 5.0% 2.5% 1.3% 3 1.6% 2.4% 1.8% 0.9% 0.5% 4+ 0.6% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2%

Rows: Gobelins goals. Columns: RED Star FC 93 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Gobelins vs RED Star FC 93 goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 74%
Over 2.5 48%
Over 3.5 26%
Both teams to score
53%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Gobelins vs RED Star FC 93

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Gobelins26%3.79
Draw28%3.53
RED Star FC 9345%2.21
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.548%2.10
Under 2.552%1.91
Both teams to scoreYes53%1.90
No47%2.11
Double chance1X (Gobelins or draw)55%1.83
12 (either side)72%1.40
X2 (draw or RED Star FC 93)74%1.36
Handicap -1RED Star FC 93 win by 2+23%4.32
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

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Gobelins and RED Star FC 93 recent form

Gobelins 0W 1D 0L
RED Star FC 93 3W 0D 3L

Last 1 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot RED Star FC 93 to win Predicted score 0 – 1 C Bet on RED Star FC 93