Kellermann vs Metz Prediction & Betting Tips 14/11/2026

Kellermann vs Metz preview

In the Coupe de France fixture between Kellermann and Metz, the 1X2 probabilities show Metz at 48%, while Kellermann sits at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which occurs at a rate of 9%. Both teams to score stands at 64%, indicating a strong chance for both sides to find the net.

Metz's recent form includes 1 win and 4 draws in their last 5 matches, while Kellermann's recent performance is not available. The expected goals are 1.39 for Kellermann and 1.87 for Metz, suggesting that Metz may dominate the attacking play. However, if Kellermann can improve their performance, they could challenge Metz's advantage.

Kellermann vs Metz: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Kellermann	Draw	Metz
Model	28%	25%	48%
Market	—	—	—
Published	28%	25%	48%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.39.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Kellermann and Metz expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.39Kellermann

1.87Metz

Total expected goals: 3.25
Attack rating (Kellermann / Metz): 1.00 / 0.97
Defence rating (Kellermann / Metz): 1.00 / 1.13

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Kellermann vs Metz score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.9% 6.2% 6.7% 4.2% 3.0% 1 4.4% 11.0% 9.3% 5.8% 4.1% 2 3.7% 6.9% 6.5% 4.0% 2.9% 3 1.7% 3.2% 3.0% 1.9% 1.3% 4+ 0.8% 1.5% 1.4% 0.9% 0.6%

Rows: Kellermann goals. Columns: Metz goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Kellermann vs Metz goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 85%

Over 2.5 63%

Over 3.5 41%

Both teams to score: 64%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Kellermann vs Metz

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Kellermann	28%	3.62
	Draw	25%	4.07
	Metz	48%	2.09
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	63%	1.59
	Under 2.5	37%	2.71
Both teams to score	Yes	64%	1.55
	No	36%	2.81
Double chance	1X (Kellermann or draw)	52%	1.92
	12 (either side)	75%	1.33
	X2 (draw or Metz)	72%	1.38
Handicap -1	Metz win by 2+	27%	3.67
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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