Le Poiré sur Vie vs USSA Vertou Prediction & Betting Tips 14/11/2026

Le Poiré sur Vie vs USSA Vertou preview

In the Coupe de France fixture between Le Poiré sur Vie and USSA Vertou, the 1X2 probabilities show USSA Vertou at 47%, while Le Poiré sur Vie sits at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs with a 13% chance. This suggests a close match, with USSA Vertou expected to edge it.

However, there are factors that could alter this outcome. The model indicates a 39% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 45% likelihood for both teams to score. If Le Poiré sur Vie can improve their attacking performance, they might challenge the expected goals of 0.88, potentially leading to a different result than predicted.

Le Poiré sur Vie vs USSA Vertou: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Le Poiré sur Vie	Draw	USSA Vertou
Model	23%	30%	47%
Market	—	—	—
Published	23%	30%	47%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 0.88.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Le Poiré sur Vie and USSA Vertou expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.88Le Poiré sur Vie

1.38USSA Vertou

Total expected goals: 2.25
Attack rating (Le Poiré sur Vie / USSA Vertou): 1.00 / 0.71
Defence rating (Le Poiré sur Vie / USSA Vertou): 1.00 / 0.71

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Le Poiré sur Vie vs USSA Vertou score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.8% 13.2% 9.9% 4.6% 2.1% 1 8.0% 14.0% 8.7% 4.0% 1.9% 2 4.0% 5.6% 3.8% 1.8% 0.8% 3 1.2% 1.6% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 4+ 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1%

Rows: Le Poiré sur Vie goals. Columns: USSA Vertou goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Le Poiré sur Vie vs USSA Vertou goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%

Over 1.5 67%

Over 2.5 39%

Over 3.5 19%

Both teams to score: 45%
No goals (0–0): 12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Le Poiré sur Vie vs USSA Vertou

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Le Poiré sur Vie	23%	4.41
	Draw	30%	3.32
	USSA Vertou	47%	2.12
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	39%	2.56
	Under 2.5	61%	1.64
Both teams to score	Yes	45%	2.23
	No	55%	1.82
Double chance	1X (Le Poiré sur Vie or draw)	53%	1.89
	12 (either side)	70%	1.43
	X2 (draw or USSA Vertou)	77%	1.29
Handicap -1	USSA Vertou win by 2+	23%	4.28
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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