Lourdes vs PAU preview
In the Coupe de France fixture between Lourdes and PAU, the 1X2 probabilities show PAU at 67%, compared to Lourdes at 13%. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, with an 11% chance. PAU's recent form includes four wins in five matches, while Lourdes has lost their last two games.
The model predicts Over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams to score at 54%. Lourdes has expected goals of 0.90, while PAU has a significantly higher 2.24. If Lourdes can improve their attacking output or if PAU underperforms, these predictions could change.
Lourdes vs PAU: model vs market
| Source | Lourdes | Draw | PAU |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 13% | 20% | 67% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 13% | 20% | 67% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.24 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Lourdes and PAU expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.14
- Attack rating (Lourdes / PAU)
- 0.81 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Lourdes / PAU)
- 1.09 / 0.91
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lourdes vs PAU score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lourdes goals. Columns: PAU goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lourdes vs PAU goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lourdes vs PAU
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lourdes | 13% | 7.80 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.93 | |
| PAU | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.55 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.85 |
| No | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lourdes or draw) | 33% | 3.02 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or PAU) | 87% | 1.15 | |
| Handicap -1 | PAU win by 2+ | 44% | 2.25 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Lourdes and PAU recent form
Lourdes
0W 0D 2L
PAU
5W 0D 1L
Last 2 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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Before and after this match
- PAU, previous: PAU vs Nantes prediction