Pays Neslois vs Furiani-Agliani Prediction & Betting Tips 15/11/2026

Pays Neslois vs Furiani-Agliani preview

In the Coupe de France fixture between Pays Neslois and Furiani-Agliani, the 1X2 probabilities show Furiani-Agliani at 50%, while Pays Neslois stands at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% chance. The expected goals indicate Pays Neslois at 1.67 and Furiani-Agliani at 2.22, suggesting a competitive match.

The model also predicts a high likelihood of goals, with Over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams to score at 73%. However, if Pays Neslois can improve their recent form, it could lead to a different outcome than expected. The confidence grade is C, reflecting uncertainty in the match's result.

Pays Neslois vs Furiani-Agliani: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Pays Neslois	Draw	Furiani-Agliani
Model	29%	22%	50%
Market	—	—	—
Published	29%	22%	50%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 1.67.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Pays Neslois and Furiani-Agliani expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.67Pays Neslois

2.22Furiani-Agliani

Total expected goals: 3.89
Attack rating (Pays Neslois / Furiani-Agliani): 1.00 / 1.15
Defence rating (Pays Neslois / Furiani-Agliani): 1.00 / 1.36

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Pays Neslois vs Furiani-Agliani score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.8% 3.8% 5.0% 3.7% 3.5% 1 2.7% 8.4% 8.4% 6.2% 5.8% 2 2.9% 6.3% 7.0% 5.2% 4.8% 3 1.6% 3.5% 3.9% 2.9% 2.7% 4+ 1.0% 2.2% 2.4% 1.8% 1.6%

Rows: Pays Neslois goals. Columns: Furiani-Agliani goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Pays Neslois vs Furiani-Agliani goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 91%

Over 2.5 74%

Over 3.5 54%

Both teams to score: 73%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Pays Neslois vs Furiani-Agliani

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Pays Neslois	29%	3.50
	Draw	22%	4.57
	Furiani-Agliani	50%	2.02
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	74%	1.34
	Under 2.5	26%	3.92
Both teams to score	Yes	73%	1.37
	No	27%	3.72
Double chance	1X (Pays Neslois or draw)	50%	1.98
	12 (either side)	78%	1.28
	X2 (draw or Furiani-Agliani)	71%	1.40
Handicap -1	Furiani-Agliani win by 2+	30%	3.30
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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