Senlis vs St-Pryvé St-Hilaire Prediction & Betting Tips 15/11/2026

Senlis vs St-Pryvé St-Hilaire preview

In the Coupe de France match between Senlis and St-Pryvé St-Hilaire, the 1X2 probabilities show St-Pryvé St-Hilaire at 53%, while Senlis stands at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 10% chance according to our model.

Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 61%. This suggests a strong possibility for an open game. However, if Senlis can exceed their expected goals of 1.23, they could challenge St-Pryvé St-Hilaire, who has an expected goals figure of 1.93. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome.

Senlis vs St-Pryvé St-Hilaire: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Senlis	Draw	St-Pryvé St-Hilaire
Model	23%	24%	53%
Market	—	—	—
Published	23%	24%	53%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.23.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Senlis and St-Pryvé St-Hilaire expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.23Senlis

1.93St-Pryvé St-Hilaire

Total expected goals: 3.15
Attack rating (Senlis / St-Pryvé St-Hilaire): 1.00 / 1.00
Defence rating (Senlis / St-Pryvé St-Hilaire): 1.00 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Senlis vs St-Pryvé St-Hilaire score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.3% 7.2% 7.9% 5.1% 3.8% 1 4.2% 11.1% 9.7% 6.2% 4.7% 2 3.2% 6.2% 6.0% 3.8% 2.9% 3 1.3% 2.5% 2.4% 1.6% 1.2% 4+ 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5%

Rows: Senlis goals. Columns: St-Pryvé St-Hilaire goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Senlis vs St-Pryvé St-Hilaire goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 83%

Over 2.5 61%

Over 3.5 39%

Both teams to score: 61%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Senlis vs St-Pryvé St-Hilaire

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Senlis	23%	4.32
	Draw	24%	4.14
	St-Pryvé St-Hilaire	53%	1.90
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	61%	1.64
	Under 2.5	39%	2.57
Both teams to score	Yes	61%	1.63
	No	39%	2.59
Double chance	1X (Senlis or draw)	47%	2.11
	12 (either side)	76%	1.32
	X2 (draw or St-Pryvé St-Hilaire)	77%	1.30
Handicap -1	St-Pryvé St-Hilaire win by 2+	31%	3.22
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer