St Ouen l'Aumône vs Boulogne Prediction & Betting Tips 14/11/2026

St Ouen l'Aumône vs Boulogne preview

In the Coupe de France fixture between St Ouen l'Aumône and Boulogne, the 1X2 probabilities show Boulogne at 40% to win, while St Ouen l'Aumône sits at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 13% chance according to our model. St Ouen l'Aumône has an expected goals figure of 0.91, while Boulogne's is higher at 1.17.

The prediction for Over 2.5 goals is 35%, and both teams to score stands at 43%. St Ouen l'Aumône's recent form is not available, while Boulogne's last five matches show a mix of results: L-D-W-D-L-D. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome.

St Ouen l'Aumône vs Boulogne: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	St Ouen l'Aumône	Draw	Boulogne
Model	27%	32%	40%
Market	—	—	—
Published	27%	32%	40%
Edge	—	—	—

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

St Ouen l'Aumône and Boulogne expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.91St Ouen l'Aumône

1.17Boulogne

Total expected goals: 2.08
Attack rating (St Ouen l'Aumône / Boulogne): 1.00 / 0.61
Defence rating (St Ouen l'Aumône / Boulogne): 1.00 / 0.74

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

St Ouen l'Aumône vs Boulogne score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 13.8% 13.2% 8.5% 3.3% 1.3% 1 10.0% 14.6% 7.8% 3.0% 1.1% 2 5.2% 6.1% 3.6% 1.4% 0.5% 3 1.6% 1.8% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 4+ 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: St Ouen l'Aumône goals. Columns: Boulogne goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

St Ouen l'Aumône vs Boulogne goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%

Over 1.5 63%

Over 2.5 35%

Over 3.5 16%

Both teams to score: 43%
No goals (0–0): 14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for St Ouen l'Aumône vs Boulogne

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	St Ouen l'Aumône	27%	3.68
	Draw	32%	3.08
	Boulogne	40%	2.48
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	35%	2.89
	Under 2.5	65%	1.53
Both teams to score	Yes	43%	2.35
	No	57%	1.74
Double chance	1X (St Ouen l'Aumône or draw)	60%	1.68
	12 (either side)	68%	1.48
	X2 (draw or Boulogne)	73%	1.37
Handicap -1	Boulogne win by 2+	18%	5.60
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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