St Sebastien vs La Baule-Le Pouliguen Prediction & Betting Tips 14/11/2026

St Sebastien vs La Baule-Le Pouliguen preview

In the Coupe de France fixture between St Sebastien and La Baule-Le Pouliguen, the 1X2 probabilities show La Baule-Le Pouliguen at 53%, while St Sebastien sits at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 10% chance according to our model.

Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both at 61%. St Sebastien has expected goals of 1.23, while La Baule-Le Pouliguen has 1.93. A low-scoring match could make the predictions inaccurate, especially if either team fails to convert chances.

St Sebastien vs La Baule-Le Pouliguen: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	St Sebastien	Draw	La Baule-Le Pouliguen
Model	23%	24%	53%
Market	—	—	—
Published	23%	24%	53%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.23.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

St Sebastien and La Baule-Le Pouliguen expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.23St Sebastien

1.93La Baule-Le Pouliguen

Total expected goals: 3.15
Attack rating (St Sebastien / La Baule-Le Pouliguen): 1.00 / 1.00
Defence rating (St Sebastien / La Baule-Le Pouliguen): 1.00 / 1.00

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

St Sebastien vs La Baule-Le Pouliguen score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.3% 7.2% 7.9% 5.1% 3.8% 1 4.2% 11.1% 9.7% 6.2% 4.7% 2 3.2% 6.2% 6.0% 3.8% 2.9% 3 1.3% 2.5% 2.4% 1.6% 1.2% 4+ 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5%

Rows: St Sebastien goals. Columns: La Baule-Le Pouliguen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

St Sebastien vs La Baule-Le Pouliguen goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 83%

Over 2.5 61%

Over 3.5 39%

Both teams to score: 61%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for St Sebastien vs La Baule-Le Pouliguen

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	St Sebastien	23%	4.32
	Draw	24%	4.14
	La Baule-Le Pouliguen	53%	1.90
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	61%	1.64
	Under 2.5	39%	2.57
Both teams to score	Yes	61%	1.63
	No	39%	2.59
Double chance	1X (St Sebastien or draw)	47%	2.11
	12 (either side)	76%	1.32
	X2 (draw or La Baule-Le Pouliguen)	77%	1.30
Handicap -1	La Baule-Le Pouliguen win by 2+	31%	3.22
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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