Stade Pontivy vs Stade Plabennec Prediction & Betting Tips 15/11/2026

Stade Pontivy vs Stade Plabennec preview

In the Coupe de France fixture between Stade Pontivy and Stade Plabennec, the 1X2 probabilities show Stade Plabennec at 54%, compared to Stade Pontivy's 21%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 10% chance. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals both sit at 58%, indicating a strong potential for an open game.

Stade Pontivy has an expected goals figure of 1.11, while Stade Plabennec has 1.89. This suggests that Stade Plabennec may have the upper hand offensively. However, Stade Pontivy's performance could surprise, especially if they improve their form. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.

Stade Pontivy vs Stade Plabennec: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Stade Pontivy	Draw	Stade Plabennec
Model	21%	24%	54%
Market	—	—	—
Published	21%	24%	54%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.11.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Stade Pontivy and Stade Plabennec expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.11Stade Pontivy

1.89Stade Plabennec

Total expected goals: 3.00
Attack rating (Stade Pontivy / Stade Plabennec): 1.00 / 0.98
Defence rating (Stade Pontivy / Stade Plabennec): 1.00 / 0.91

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Stade Pontivy vs Stade Plabennec score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.0% 8.4% 8.9% 5.6% 4.1% 1 4.5% 11.5% 9.9% 6.2% 4.5% 2 3.1% 5.8% 5.5% 3.5% 2.5% 3 1.1% 2.1% 2.0% 1.3% 0.9% 4+ 0.4% 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3%

Rows: Stade Pontivy goals. Columns: Stade Plabennec goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Stade Pontivy vs Stade Plabennec goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 81%

Over 2.5 58%

Over 3.5 35%

Both teams to score: 58%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Stade Pontivy vs Stade Plabennec

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Stade Pontivy	21%	4.75
	Draw	24%	4.09
	Stade Plabennec	54%	1.83
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	58%	1.73
	Under 2.5	42%	2.36
Both teams to score	Yes	58%	1.72
	No	42%	2.38
Double chance	1X (Stade Pontivy or draw)	46%	2.20
	12 (either side)	76%	1.32
	X2 (draw or Stade Plabennec)	79%	1.27
Handicap -1	Stade Plabennec win by 2+	32%	3.11
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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