Tefana vs Thionville Lusitanos Prediction & Betting Tips 14/11/2026

Tefana vs Thionville Lusitanos preview

In the Coupe de France match between Tefana and Thionville Lusitanos, the 1X2 probabilities show Thionville Lusitanos at 52%, while Tefana is at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 10% chance. Both teams to score stands at 63%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 62%, indicating a strong possibility of an open game.

Tefana's expected goals are 1.27, which is significantly lower than Thionville Lusitanos' 1.95. This difference suggests that Tefana may struggle to find the net against a more potent attack. However, if Tefana can improve their performance, they could potentially challenge the expected outcome.

Tefana vs Thionville Lusitanos: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Tefana	Draw	Thionville Lusitanos
Model	24%	24%	52%
Market	—	—	—
Published	24%	24%	52%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 1.27.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Tefana and Thionville Lusitanos expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.27Tefana

1.95Thionville Lusitanos

Total expected goals: 3.22
Attack rating (Tefana / Thionville Lusitanos): 1.00 / 1.02
Defence rating (Tefana / Thionville Lusitanos): 1.00 / 1.03

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Tefana vs Thionville Lusitanos score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.0% 6.8% 7.6% 5.0% 3.8% 1 4.1% 10.9% 9.7% 6.3% 4.8% 2 3.2% 6.3% 6.1% 4.0% 3.0% 3 1.3% 2.6% 2.6% 1.7% 1.3% 4+ 0.6% 1.1% 1.1% 0.7% 0.5%

Rows: Tefana goals. Columns: Thionville Lusitanos goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Tefana vs Thionville Lusitanos goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 84%

Over 2.5 62%

Over 3.5 40%

Both teams to score: 63%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Tefana vs Thionville Lusitanos

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Tefana	24%	4.24
	Draw	24%	4.18
	Thionville Lusitanos	52%	1.91
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	62%	1.60
	Under 2.5	38%	2.66
Both teams to score	Yes	63%	1.60
	No	37%	2.68
Double chance	1X (Tefana or draw)	48%	2.10
	12 (either side)	76%	1.31
	X2 (draw or Thionville Lusitanos)	76%	1.31
Handicap -1	Thionville Lusitanos win by 2+	31%	3.22
	Push (exactly one goal)	21%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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