Aragvi Dusheti vs Gareji preview
Aragvi Dusheti faces Gareji with a 45% probability of winning compared to Gareji's 30%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the 62% chance of Over 2.5 goals and 64% chance for both teams to score. The expected goals for Aragvi Dusheti are 1.78, while Gareji's are 1.44.
However, recent form shows Aragvi Dusheti with three losses in their last six matches, while Gareji has only one win in the same span. In their last three encounters, Aragvi Dusheti has won once, and Gareji has won twice. This could impact the match outcome, making it less predictable despite the statistical edge for Aragvi Dusheti.
Aragvi Dusheti vs Gareji: model vs market
| Source | Aragvi Dusheti | Draw | Gareji |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45% | 25% | 30% |
| Market | 37% | 29% | 34% |
| Published | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.44.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.50, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Aragvi Dusheti vs Gareji odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Aragvi Dusheti, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aragvi Dusheti | 2.40 | 2.44 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.10 | +0.00 |
| Gareji | 2.65 | 2.70 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Aragvi Dusheti and Gareji expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.22
- Attack rating (Aragvi Dusheti / Gareji)
- 1.01 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Aragvi Dusheti / Gareji)
- 1.26 / 1.24
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Aragvi Dusheti vs Gareji score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Aragvi Dusheti goals. Columns: Gareji goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Aragvi Dusheti vs Gareji goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Aragvi Dusheti vs Gareji
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aragvi Dusheti | 39% | 2.56 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Gareji | 33% | 3.05 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.66 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.55 |
| No | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Aragvi Dusheti or draw) | 67% | 1.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Gareji) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | Aragvi Dusheti win by 2+ | 25% | 4.06 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Aragvi Dusheti and Gareji recent form
Aragvi Dusheti
2W 0D 4L
Gareji
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Aragvi Dusheti at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-1-6
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 1.64
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 14
- They have won 11 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gareji away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-5-4
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 0.93
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 15 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Aragvi Dusheti at home only, Gareji away only.
Aragvi Dusheti vs Gareji head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Aragvi Dusheti 2 · draws 0 · Gareji 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Gareji | 0-2 | Aragvi Dusheti | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| 2026-05-10 | Aragvi Dusheti | 0-1 | Gareji | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| 2026-03-11 | Gareji | 1-0 | Aragvi Dusheti | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| 2024-10-05 | Aragvi Dusheti | 1-3 | Gareji | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| 2024-08-10 | Gareji | 2-0 | Aragvi Dusheti | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| 2024-05-01 | Aragvi Dusheti | 3-5 | Gareji | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| 2024-03-07 | Gareji | 0-1 | Aragvi Dusheti | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
- Telavi v Kolkheti Poti — match page 2026-10-24
- Odishi 1919 vs Merani Martvili 2026-10-24
- Gori vs Samtredia — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Shturmi vs Sioni 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Aragvi Dusheti, previous: Samtredia v Aragvi Dusheti analysis
- Gareji, previous: Gareji – Telavi, 2026-10-17