Kolkheti Poti vs Gareji preview
Kolkheti Poti faces Gareji with a 56% probability of winning according to our model, while Gareji sits at 18%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which has a 12% chance of occurring. Kolkheti Poti has an expected goals figure of 1.68, compared to Gareji's 0.85, indicating a potential advantage in attacking play.
However, Kolkheti Poti's recent form shows 2 draws and 2 wins in their last 5 matches, while Gareji has 2 wins and 3 losses. Both teams to score stands at 48%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 46%, suggesting that the match could be tighter than the probabilities indicate. The confidence grade is C, reflecting some uncertainty in the predictions.
Kolkheti Poti vs Gareji: model vs market
| Source | Kolkheti Poti | Draw | Gareji |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 26% | 18% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 56% | 26% | 18% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 0.85.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Kolkheti Poti and Gareji expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.53
- Attack rating (Kolkheti Poti / Gareji)
- 1.04 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Kolkheti Poti / Gareji)
- 0.82 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kolkheti Poti vs Gareji score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kolkheti Poti goals. Columns: Gareji goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kolkheti Poti vs Gareji goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kolkheti Poti vs Gareji
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kolkheti Poti | 56% | 1.78 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Gareji | 18% | 5.69 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.16 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.10 |
| No | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kolkheti Poti or draw) | 82% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Gareji) | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kolkheti Poti win by 2+ | 32% | 3.16 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Kolkheti Poti and Gareji recent form
Kolkheti Poti
2W 3D 1L
Gareji
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kolkheti Poti at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-7-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.73
- Goals against / match
- 0.73
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 15
- They have won 7 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Gareji away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-6-4
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.87
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 15 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kolkheti Poti at home only, Gareji away only.
Kolkheti Poti vs Gareji head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Kolkheti Poti 0 · draws 1 · Gareji 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Gareji | 3-2 | Kolkheti Poti | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| 2026-05-16 | Kolkheti Poti | 1-1 | Gareji | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| 2026-03-15 | Gareji | 2-1 | Kolkheti Poti | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- Merani Martvili v Telavi — match page 2026-10-31
- Samtredia vs Shturmi — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Gori vs Aragvi Dusheti — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Sioni vs Odishi 1919 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Kolkheti Poti, previous: Telavi vs Kolkheti Poti prediction
- Gareji, previous: Aragvi Dusheti vs Gareji: odds and pick