Samtredia vs Shturmi Prediction & Betting Tips 31/10/2026

Samtredia vs Shturmi preview

In the Erovnuli Liga 2 fixture, Samtredia has a 64% probability to win against Shturmi, who stands at 14%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, occurring with a 12% chance. Samtredia's expected goals are 2.00, while Shturmi's are significantly lower at 0.84.

However, recent form shows Samtredia with mixed results (L-L-W-W-L-W) and Shturmi performing better (L-W-W-D-W-W). This could influence the match outcome, as Shturmi has shown resilience. Both teams to score has a 50% likelihood, and Over 2.5 goals is at 54%. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.

Samtredia vs Shturmi: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Samtredia	Draw	Shturmi
Model	61%	24%	15%
Market	—	—	—
Published	61%	24%	15%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.86 vs 0.81.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Samtredia and Shturmi expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.86Samtredia

0.81Shturmi

Total expected goals: 2.67
Attack rating (Samtredia / Shturmi): 1.51 / 1.01
Defence rating (Samtredia / Shturmi): 0.74 / 0.86

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Samtredia vs Shturmi score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.0% 4.6% 2.3% 0.6% 0.1% 1 11.9% 11.5% 4.2% 1.1% 0.3% 2 12.0% 9.7% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3% 3 7.5% 6.0% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 5.3% 4.3% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1%

Rows: Samtredia goals. Columns: Shturmi goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Samtredia vs Shturmi goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%

Over 1.5 76%

Over 2.5 50%

Over 3.5 28%

Both teams to score: 48%
No goals (0–0): 8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Samtredia vs Shturmi

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Samtredia	61%	1.63
	Draw	24%	4.15
	Shturmi	15%	6.83
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	50%	2.01
	Under 2.5	50%	1.99
Both teams to score	Yes	48%	2.09
	No	52%	1.92
Double chance	1X (Samtredia or draw)	85%	1.17
	12 (either side)	76%	1.32
	X2 (draw or Shturmi)	39%	2.58
Handicap -1	Samtredia win by 2+	37%	2.71
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Samtredia and Shturmi recent form

Samtredia 3W 0D 3L

Shturmi 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Samtredia at home

Record (W-D-L): 8-3-4
Win rate: 53%
Goals for / match: 2.00
Goals against / match: 1.07
Clean sheets: 6 of 15

They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
They have converted 8 of 9 penalties (89%).
36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Shturmi away

Record (W-D-L): 3-9-3
Win rate: 20%
Goals for / match: 1.00
Goals against / match: 1.07
Clean sheets: 6 of 15

They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
They have kept 14 clean sheets in 29 matches.
They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Samtredia at home only, Shturmi away only.

Samtredia vs Shturmi head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Samtredia 1 · draws 1 · Shturmi 1.

33% 33% 34%

SamtrediaDrawsShturmi

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-08-22	Shturmi	0-1	Samtredia	Erovnuli Liga 2
2026-05-16	Samtredia	1-1	Shturmi	Erovnuli Liga 2
2026-03-15	Shturmi	3-2	Samtredia	Erovnuli Liga 2

Other Matchday 31 fixtures

Merani Martvili v Telavi — match page 2026-10-31
Kolkheti Poti vs Gareji 2026-10-31
Gori vs Aragvi Dusheti — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Sioni vs Odishi 1919 2026-10-31

Before and after this match

Samtredia, previous: Gori – Samtredia, 2026-10-24
Shturmi, previous: Shturmi v Sioni analysis

Prediction snapshot Samtredia to win Predicted score 2 – 0 C Bet on Samtredia