Gori vs Aragvi Dusheti preview
Gori faces Aragvi Dusheti with a 55% probability of winning compared to 19% for the visitors. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which aligns with Gori's expected goals of 1.72 against Aragvi Dusheti's 0.93. Both teams to score stands at 51%, indicating a balanced chance for both sides to find the net.
However, Gori's recent form shows inconsistency with 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Aragvi Dusheti, on the other hand, has 3 wins in their last 6 games, showcasing a stronger recent performance. This could challenge Gori's chances, especially considering their head-to-head record, where they have not won against Aragvi Dusheti in their last 3 encounters.
Gori vs Aragvi Dusheti: model vs market
| Source | Gori | Draw | Aragvi Dusheti |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 0.93.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Gori and Aragvi Dusheti expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.65
- Attack rating (Gori / Aragvi Dusheti)
- 1.06 / 0.93
- Defence rating (Gori / Aragvi Dusheti)
- 0.92 / 1.14
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gori vs Aragvi Dusheti score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gori goals. Columns: Aragvi Dusheti goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gori vs Aragvi Dusheti goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gori vs Aragvi Dusheti
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gori | 55% | 1.82 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Aragvi Dusheti | 19% | 5.24 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.97 |
| No | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gori or draw) | 81% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Aragvi Dusheti) | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gori win by 2+ | 31% | 3.20 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Gori and Aragvi Dusheti recent form
Gori
2W 2D 2L
Aragvi Dusheti
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gori at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-4
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.27
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 7 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 29 matches.
Aragvi Dusheti away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-7
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 11 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Gori at home only, Aragvi Dusheti away only.
Gori vs Aragvi Dusheti head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Gori 0 · draws 0 · Aragvi Dusheti 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Aragvi Dusheti | 1-0 | Gori | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| 2026-05-16 | Gori | 0-1 | Aragvi Dusheti | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| 2026-03-15 | Aragvi Dusheti | 1-0 | Gori | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- Merani Martvili v Telavi — match page 2026-10-31
- Kolkheti Poti vs Gareji 2026-10-31
- Samtredia vs Shturmi — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Sioni vs Odishi 1919 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Gori, previous: Gori – Samtredia, 2026-10-24
- Aragvi Dusheti, previous: Aragvi Dusheti vs Gareji: odds and pick