Merani Martvili vs Telavi preview
In the match between Merani Martvili and Telavi, the 1X2 probabilities show Telavi at 45%, while Merani Martvili sits at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance according to our model. Both teams to score has a 55% probability, indicating a strong chance for goals from both sides.
Merani Martvili's recent form includes 3 wins and 2 losses, while Telavi has 3 draws and 3 losses in their last 6 matches. The expected goals suggest Merani Martvili will score 1.16 and Telavi 1.55. However, if Merani Martvili improves their home performance, they could disrupt the expected outcome.
Merani Martvili vs Telavi: model vs market
| Source | Merani Martvili | Draw | Telavi |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 28% | 45% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 27% | 28% | 45% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 1.16.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Merani Martvili and Telavi expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.72
- Attack rating (Merani Martvili / Telavi)
- 0.87 / 1.03
- Defence rating (Merani Martvili / Telavi)
- 1.40 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Merani Martvili vs Telavi score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Merani Martvili goals. Columns: Telavi goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Merani Martvili vs Telavi goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Merani Martvili vs Telavi
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Merani Martvili | 27% | 3.67 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Telavi | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Merani Martvili or draw) | 55% | 1.82 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Telavi) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Handicap -1 | Telavi win by 2+ | 24% | 4.24 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Merani Martvili and Telavi recent form
Merani Martvili
3W 0D 3L
Telavi
1W 4D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Merani Martvili at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-4-3
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.87
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 15
- They have won 11 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Telavi away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-6
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.27
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Merani Martvili at home only, Telavi away only.
Merani Martvili vs Telavi head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Merani Martvili 0 · draws 2 · Telavi 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Telavi | 1-0 | Merani Martvili | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| 2026-05-16 | Merani Martvili | 0-0 | Telavi | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| 2026-03-15 | Telavi | 1-1 | Merani Martvili | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
- Kolkheti Poti vs Gareji 2026-10-31
- Samtredia vs Shturmi — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Gori vs Aragvi Dusheti — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Sioni vs Odishi 1919 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Merani Martvili, previous: Odishi 1919 vs Merani Martvili: odds and pick
- Telavi, previous: Telavi vs Kolkheti Poti prediction