Updated

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Matchday 32

Gareji vs Merani Martvili

· Central stadium

Full time3 – 0

Alin prediction was Gareji to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
GarejiDrawMerani Martvili

Gareji vs Merani Martvili: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGarejiDrawMerani Martvili
Model42%28%30%
Market37%28%35%
Published39%28%34%
Edge+1%0%-1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Gareji vs Merani Martvili odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Gareji, 2 snapshots since 2026-11-06.

Opened 2.40Now 2.41 +0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Gareji2.402.41+0.01
Draw3.253.25+0.00
Merani Martvili2.552.58+0.03

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Gareji and Merani Martvili expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.52Gareji
1.25Merani Martvili
Total expected goals
2.77
Attack rating (Gareji / Merani Martvili)
0.84 / 0.95
Defence rating (Gareji / Merani Martvili)
1.24 / 1.27

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Gareji vs Merani Martvili score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.4% 6.6% 4.9% 2.0% 0.8% 1 8.3% 13.1% 7.4% 3.1% 1.3% 2 7.2% 9.0% 5.7% 2.4% 1.0% 3 3.7% 4.6% 2.9% 1.2% 0.5% 4+ 2.0% 2.4% 1.5% 0.6% 0.3%

Rows: Gareji goals. Columns: Merani Martvili goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Gareji vs Merani Martvili goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 52%
Over 3.5 30%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Gareji vs Merani Martvili

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Gareji39%2.59
Draw28%3.62
Merani Martvili34%2.96
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552%1.91
Under 2.548%2.10
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.75
No43%2.33
Double chance1X (Gareji or draw)66%1.51
12 (either side)72%1.38
X2 (draw or Merani Martvili)61%1.63
Handicap -1Gareji win by 2+22%4.63
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Gareji and Merani Martvili recent form

Gareji 2W 1D 3L
Merani Martvili 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Gareji at home

Record (W-D-L)
10-3-2
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
6 of 15
  • They have won 15 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Merani Martvili away

Record (W-D-L)
3-3-9
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
0.93
Goals against / match
1.80
Clean sheets
2 of 15
  • They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Gareji at home only, Merani Martvili away only.

Gareji vs Merani Martvili head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Gareji 6 · draws 1 · Merani Martvili 2.

GarejiDrawsMerani Martvili
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-29Merani Martvili1-2GarejiErovnuli Liga 2
2026-05-20Gareji1-0Merani MartviliErovnuli Liga 2
2026-04-03Merani Martvili1-0GarejiErovnuli Liga 2
2023-10-27Gareji6-1Merani MartviliErovnuli Liga 2
2023-08-18Merani Martvili1-4GarejiErovnuli Liga 2
2023-05-15Gareji5-1Merani MartviliErovnuli Liga 2
2023-03-19Merani Martvili0-2GarejiErovnuli Liga 2
2022-10-29Gareji0-0Merani MartviliErovnuli Liga 2
2022-09-04Merani Martvili3-2GarejiErovnuli Liga 2

Other Matchday 32 fixtures

Before and after this match