Telavi vs Sioni preview
In the Erovnuli Liga 2 fixture between Telavi and Sioni, Telavi holds a 53% probability of winning compared to Sioni's 21%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 13% chance of occurring. Telavi's expected goals stand at 1.44, while Sioni's are at 0.88, indicating a potential advantage for Telavi in attack.
However, the match could see different outcomes if Sioni improves their form, as they have recently drawn once and lost five times in their last six matches. Additionally, both teams to score has a 46% likelihood, suggesting that Sioni could find the net if they capitalize on any defensive lapses from Telavi.
Telavi vs Sioni: model vs market
| Source | Telavi | Draw | Sioni |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 29% | 22% |
| Market | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Published | 53% | 27% | 21% |
| Edge | -1% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 0.88.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Telavi vs Sioni odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Telavi, 2 snapshots since 2026-11-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Telavi | 1.65 | 1.67 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
| Sioni | 4.50 | 4.50 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Telavi and Sioni expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.33
- Attack rating (Telavi / Sioni)
- 0.94 / 0.81
- Defence rating (Telavi / Sioni)
- 1.02 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Telavi vs Sioni score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Telavi goals. Columns: Sioni goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Telavi vs Sioni goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Telavi vs Sioni
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Telavi | 53% | 1.89 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Sioni | 21% | 4.88 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.17 |
| No | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Telavi or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Sioni) | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Handicap -1 | Telavi win by 2+ | 25% | 4.00 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Telavi and Sioni recent form
Telavi
1W 3D 2L
Sioni
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Telavi at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-6-1
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.07
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 15
- They have won 12 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sioni away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-4-9
- Win rate
- 13%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.73
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 9 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Telavi at home only, Sioni away only.
Telavi vs Sioni head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Telavi 3 · draws 2 · Sioni 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Sioni | 2-1 | Telavi | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| 2026-05-20 | Telavi | 2-1 | Sioni | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| 2026-04-03 | Sioni | 3-0 | Telavi | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| 2022-10-09 | Telavi | 0-0 | Sioni | Erovnuli Liga |
| 2022-07-02 | Sioni | 0-0 | Telavi | Erovnuli Liga |
| 2022-05-03 | Telavi | 2-0 | Sioni | Erovnuli Liga |
| 2022-03-05 | Sioni | 0-2 | Telavi | Erovnuli Liga |
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
- Aragvi Dusheti v Kolkheti Poti — match page 2026-11-07
- Gareji vs Merani Martvili 2026-11-07
- Odishi 1919 vs Samtredia — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Shturmi vs Gori — team news & stats 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- Telavi, previous: Merani Martvili v Telavi analysis
- Sioni, previous: Sioni vs Odishi 1919 prediction