Aragvi Dusheti vs Kolkheti Poti: model vs market
| Source | Aragvi Dusheti | Draw | Kolkheti Poti |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 31% | 44% |
| Market | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| Published | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.32 vs 0.93.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Aragvi Dusheti and Kolkheti Poti expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.25
- Attack rating (Aragvi Dusheti / Kolkheti Poti)
- 0.85 / 1.19
- Defence rating (Aragvi Dusheti / Kolkheti Poti)
- 1.04 / 0.77
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Aragvi Dusheti vs Kolkheti Poti score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Aragvi Dusheti goals. Columns: Kolkheti Poti goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Aragvi Dusheti vs Kolkheti Poti goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Aragvi Dusheti vs Kolkheti Poti
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aragvi Dusheti | 34% | 2.97 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Kolkheti Poti | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.19 |
| No | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Aragvi Dusheti or draw) | 62% | 1.62 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Kolkheti Poti) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kolkheti Poti win by 2+ | 21% | 4.73 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Aragvi Dusheti and Kolkheti Poti recent form
Aragvi Dusheti
2W 2D 2L
Kolkheti Poti
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Aragvi Dusheti at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-2-6
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.53
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kolkheti Poti away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-4-10
- Win rate
- 7%
- Goals for / match
- 0.87
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 15
- They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Aragvi Dusheti at home only, Kolkheti Poti away only.
Aragvi Dusheti vs Kolkheti Poti head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Aragvi Dusheti 2 · draws 2 · Kolkheti Poti 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Kolkheti Poti | 1-1 | Aragvi Dusheti | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | Kolkheti Poti | 0-0 | Aragvi Dusheti | David Kipiani Cup |
| 2026-05-20 | Aragvi Dusheti | 2-1 | Kolkheti Poti | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| 2026-04-03 | Kolkheti Poti | 3-1 | Aragvi Dusheti | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| 2021-03-27 | Aragvi Dusheti | 1-0 | Kolkheti Poti | David Kipiani Cup |
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
- Gareji vs Merani Martvili 2026-11-07
- Odishi 1919 vs Samtredia — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Telavi v Sioni — match page 2026-11-07
- Shturmi vs Gori — team news & stats 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- Aragvi Dusheti, previous: Gori vs Aragvi Dusheti: odds and pick
- Kolkheti Poti, previous: Kolkheti Poti – Gareji, 2026-10-31