Telavi vs Kolkheti Poti preview
In the Erovnuli Liga 2 fixture between Telavi and Kolkheti Poti, the 1X2 probabilities show Telavi at 40%, with the most likely scoreline being 1-0 at 11%. Telavi has had a mixed recent form with 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Kolkheti Poti has been more consistent, winning 4 of their last 6 games.
The model predicts a 41% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance for both teams to score. However, Kolkheti Poti's stronger recent performance could challenge Telavi's home advantage, potentially leading to a different outcome than expected.
Telavi vs Kolkheti Poti: model vs market
| Source | Telavi | Draw | Kolkheti Poti |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 31% | 30% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 40% | 31% | 30% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Telavi and Kolkheti Poti expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.31
- Attack rating (Telavi / Kolkheti Poti)
- 1.08 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Telavi / Kolkheti Poti)
- 0.93 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Telavi vs Kolkheti Poti score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Telavi goals. Columns: Kolkheti Poti goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Telavi vs Kolkheti Poti goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Telavi vs Kolkheti Poti
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Telavi | 40% | 2.53 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.25 | |
| Kolkheti Poti | 30% | 3.37 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.68 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.09 |
| No | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Telavi or draw) | 70% | 1.42 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Kolkheti Poti) | 60% | 1.65 | |
| Handicap -1 | Telavi win by 2+ | 18% | 5.52 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Telavi and Kolkheti Poti recent form
Telavi
1W 3D 2L
Kolkheti Poti
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Telavi at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-5-1
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.07
- Goals against / match
- 0.57
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 14
- They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kolkheti Poti away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-10
- Win rate
- 7%
- Goals for / match
- 0.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.71
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 14
- They have won 6 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Telavi at home only, Kolkheti Poti away only.
Telavi vs Kolkheti Poti head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Telavi 2 · draws 1 · Kolkheti Poti 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Kolkheti Poti | 1-1 | Telavi | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| 2026-05-10 | Telavi | 3-1 | Kolkheti Poti | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| 2026-03-11 | Kolkheti Poti | 0-1 | Telavi | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
- Odishi 1919 vs Merani Martvili 2026-10-24
- Gori vs Samtredia — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Shturmi vs Sioni 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Telavi, previous: Gareji – Telavi, 2026-10-17
- Kolkheti Poti, previous: Kolkheti Poti vs Odishi 1919: odds and pick