Gori vs Samtredia preview
In the Erovnuli Liga 2 fixture, Gori faces Samtredia with a 1X2 probability of Gori at 24%, a draw at 24%, and Samtredia at 52%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, which occurs with a 10% chance. Both teams have shown fluctuating form, with Gori winning 3 of their last 5 matches, while Samtredia has won 4 of their last 5.
Our model predicts Over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 63%. Gori has expected goals of 1.28, while Samtredia stands at 1.95. If Gori can maintain their recent winning momentum, they could challenge Samtredia's higher expected goals. However, Samtredia's stronger form could also lead to a different outcome.
Gori vs Samtredia: model vs market
| Source | Gori | Draw | Samtredia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 24% | 52% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 24% | 24% | 52% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.95 vs 1.28.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Gori and Samtredia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.22
- Attack rating (Gori / Samtredia)
- 1.17 / 1.64
- Defence rating (Gori / Samtredia)
- 1.08 / 0.76
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gori vs Samtredia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gori goals. Columns: Samtredia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gori vs Samtredia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gori vs Samtredia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gori | 24% | 4.17 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.17 | |
| Samtredia | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.60 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gori or draw) | 48% | 2.08 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Samtredia) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Handicap -1 | Samtredia win by 2+ | 31% | 3.26 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Gori and Samtredia recent form
Gori
3W 2D 1L
Samtredia
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gori at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-5-4
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.36
- Goals against / match
- 1.36
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 14
- They have won 7 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 28 matches.
Samtredia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-9
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.79
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 14
- They have won 12 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 28 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 28 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 9 penalties (89%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Gori at home only, Samtredia away only.
Gori vs Samtredia head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Gori 1 · draws 1 · Samtredia 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Samtredia | 1-0 | Gori | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| 2026-05-10 | Gori | 2-1 | Samtredia | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
| 2026-03-11 | Samtredia | 2-2 | Gori | Erovnuli Liga 2 |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
- Odishi 1919 vs Merani Martvili 2026-10-24
- Telavi v Kolkheti Poti — match page 2026-10-24
- Shturmi vs Sioni 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Gori, previous: Sioni v Gori analysis
- Samtredia, previous: Samtredia v Aragvi Dusheti analysis