OFI vs PAOK preview
In the Super League 1 fixture between OFI and PAOK, the 1X2 probabilities show PAOK at 49%, while OFI stands at 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, with an 8% chance. Both teams to score has a probability of 66%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 64%, suggesting a potentially high-scoring match.
Recent form indicates OFI has struggled, with three losses in their last five matches, while PAOK has won four out of their last five games. However, the head-to-head record shows a competitive history, with OFI winning 3 times, PAOK 4 times, and 3 draws in their last 10 encounters. This could influence the outcome, making it less predictable despite the current form.
OFI vs PAOK: model vs market
| Source | OFI | Draw | PAOK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 26% | 36% |
| Market | 20% | 25% | 55% |
| Published | 25% | 25% | 50% |
| Edge | +5% | 0% | -5% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
OFI vs PAOK odds movement
Median bookmaker price on PAOK, 25 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| OFI | 4.20 | 4.70 | +0.50 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.78 | +0.03 |
| PAOK | 1.83 | 1.70 | -0.13 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
OFI and PAOK expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.13
- Attack rating (OFI / PAOK)
- 1.11 / 1.24
- Defence rating (OFI / PAOK)
- 1.10 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
OFI vs PAOK score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: OFI goals. Columns: PAOK goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
OFI vs PAOK goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for OFI vs PAOK
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | OFI | 25% | 4.06 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.99 | |
| PAOK | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.54 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.57 |
| No | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Double chance | 1X (OFI or draw) | 50% | 2.01 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or PAOK) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | PAOK win by 2+ | 18% | 5.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
OFI and PAOK recent form
OFI
1W 1D 4L
PAOK
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
OFI at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
PAOK away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: OFI at home only, PAOK away only.
OFI vs PAOK head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: OFI 3 · draws 3 · PAOK 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | PAOK | 0-0 | OFI | Greece Cup |
| 2026-04-25 | PAOK | 2-3 | OFI | Greece Cup |
| 2026-01-18 | PAOK | 3-0 | OFI | Super League 1 |
| 2025-09-14 | OFI | 1-2 | PAOK | Super League 1 |
| 2025-02-08 | OFI | 0-5 | PAOK | Super League 1 |
| 2024-10-27 | PAOK | 1-2 | OFI | Super League 1 |
| 2024-01-03 | PAOK | 4-0 | OFI | Super League 1 |
| 2023-09-03 | OFI | 1-0 | PAOK | Super League 1 |
| 2023-01-14 | PAOK | 0-0 | OFI | Super League 1 |
| 2022-09-18 | OFI | 1-1 | PAOK | Super League 1 |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Iraklis 1908 v Kifisia — match page 2026-10-24
- Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos 2026-10-24
- AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Olympiakos Piraeus v Kalamata — match page 2026-10-25
- Volos NFC vs Panathinaikos 2026-10-25
- Aris Thessalonikis v Atromitos — match page 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- OFI, previous: OFI v Bayer Leverkusen analysis
- OFI, next: Larisa vs OFI prediction
- PAOK, previous: PAOK v Iraklis 1908 analysis
- PAOK, next: PAOK vs AEK Athens FC: odds and pick