AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos preview
In the Super League 1 fixture between AEK Athens FC and Panetolikos, AEK Athens FC has an 80% chance of winning, while Panetolikos stands at just 7%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 9% probability. AEK Athens FC has been in decent form, with 3 wins in their last 5 matches, while Panetolikos has lost 4 of their last 5 games.
The model suggests a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 75% and both teams to score at 59%. However, the confidence grade is C, indicating that unexpected outcomes could arise, particularly if Panetolikos manages to improve their recent form or if AEK Athens FC underperforms.
AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos: model vs market
| Source | AEK Athens FC | Draw | Panetolikos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 77% | 14% | 8% |
| Market | 84% | 11% | 5% |
| Published | 82% | 12% | 6% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.95 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.15, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos odds movement
Median bookmaker price on AEK Athens FC, 25 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens FC | 1.21 | 1.11 | -0.09 |
| Draw | 6.10 | 8.20 | +2.10 |
| Panetolikos | 14.70 | 18.50 | +3.80 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
AEK Athens FC and Panetolikos expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.90
- Attack rating (AEK Athens FC / Panetolikos)
- 1.63 / 0.82
- Defence rating (AEK Athens FC / Panetolikos)
- 1.02 / 1.24
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: AEK Athens FC goals. Columns: Panetolikos goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AEK Athens FC | 82% | 1.22 |
| Draw | 12% | 8.29 | |
| Panetolikos | 6% | 17.01 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.71 |
| No | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Double chance | 1X (AEK Athens FC or draw) | 94% | 1.06 |
| 12 (either side) | 88% | 1.14 | |
| X2 (draw or Panetolikos) | 18% | 5.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | AEK Athens FC win by 2+ | 58% | 1.71 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
AEK Athens FC and Panetolikos recent form
AEK Athens FC
3W 1D 2L
Panetolikos
2W 0D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
AEK Athens FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 4.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 4.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Panetolikos away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: AEK Athens FC at home only, Panetolikos away only.
AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: AEK Athens FC 7 · draws 1 · Panetolikos 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | Panetolikos | 0-5 | AEK Athens FC | Super League 1 |
| 2025-11-02 | AEK Athens FC | 1-0 | Panetolikos | Super League 1 |
| 2025-09-24 | AEK Athens FC | 2-1 | Panetolikos | Greece Cup |
| 2025-01-25 | AEK Athens FC | 1-0 | Panetolikos | Super League 1 |
| 2024-10-05 | Panetolikos | 1-0 | AEK Athens FC | Super League 1 |
| 2023-12-18 | Panetolikos | 2-2 | AEK Athens FC | Super League 1 |
| 2023-10-08 | AEK Athens FC | 3-0 | Panetolikos | Super League 1 |
| 2023-01-15 | AEK Athens FC | 4-1 | Panetolikos | Super League 1 |
| 2022-09-17 | Panetolikos | 0-2 | AEK Athens FC | Super League 1 |
| 2022-01-16 | AEK Athens FC | 1-2 | Panetolikos | Super League 1 |
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Before and after this match
- AEK Athens FC, previous: Manchester City vs AEK Athens FC prediction
- AEK Athens FC, next: PAOK vs AEK Athens FC: odds and pick
- Panetolikos, previous: Panetolikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus: odds and pick