Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata preview
In the Super League 1 fixture between Olympiakos Piraeus and Kalamata, the 1X2 probabilities show Olympiakos Piraeus at 76%, draw at 16%, and Kalamata at 8%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 14% chance. Olympiakos has an expected goals figure of 1.60, while Kalamata sits at 0.78.
Despite Olympiakos's strong form, with 5 wins and 1 loss in their last 6 matches, Kalamata's recent performance includes 3 wins and 3 draws. This could lead to a closer game than the numbers suggest. The model indicates a 43% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance for both teams to score, which could change the outcome if Kalamata finds the net.
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata: model vs market
| Source | Olympiakos Piraeus | Draw | Kalamata |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 28% | 16% |
| Market | 84% | 12% | 4% |
| Published | 77% | 16% | 7% |
| Edge | -7% | +4% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 0.74.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.15, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Olympiakos Piraeus, 26 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Olympiakos Piraeus | 1.15 | 1.11 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 7.15 | 8.00 | +0.85 |
| Kalamata | 18.75 | 21.00 | +2.25 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Olympiakos Piraeus and Kalamata expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.30
- Attack rating (Olympiakos Piraeus / Kalamata)
- 1.04 / 1.33
- Defence rating (Olympiakos Piraeus / Kalamata)
- 0.49 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Olympiakos Piraeus goals. Columns: Kalamata goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 42%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Kalamata
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 77% | 1.30 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.40 | |
| Kalamata | 7% | 13.51 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.68 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42% | 2.36 |
| No | 58% | 1.74 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Olympiakos Piraeus or draw) | 93% | 1.08 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| X2 (draw or Kalamata) | 23% | 4.34 | |
| Handicap -1 | Olympiakos Piraeus win by 2+ | 31% | 3.26 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Olympiakos Piraeus and Kalamata recent form
Olympiakos Piraeus
6W 0D 0L
Kalamata
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Olympiakos Piraeus at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Kalamata away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Olympiakos Piraeus at home only, Kalamata away only.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Iraklis 1908 v Kifisia — match page 2026-10-24
- Asteras Tripolis vs Levadiakos 2026-10-24
- AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Volos NFC vs Panathinaikos 2026-10-25
- Aris Thessalonikis v Atromitos — match page 2026-10-25
- OFI vs PAOK — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Olympiakos Piraeus, previous: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Sparta Praha prediction
- Olympiakos Piraeus, next: Marko – Olympiakos Piraeus, 2026-10-28
- Kalamata, previous: Kalamata – OFI, 2026-10-18
- Kalamata, next: Nestos Chrisoupolis vs Kalamata prediction