Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos preview
In the upcoming match between Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos, the 1X2 probabilities show Aris at 55% to win, while Atromitos sits at 20%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, which occurs 10% of the time. Aris has a slight edge in expected goals at 1.75 compared to Atromitos' 1.11.
Both teams to score stands at 56%, indicating a reasonable chance for both sides to find the net. However, recent form reveals Aris' mixed results with 2 wins in their last 5 matches, while Atromitos has struggled, losing 3 of their last 5. This inconsistency could affect the match outcome and the scoring dynamics.
Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos: model vs market
| Source | Aris Thessalonikis | Draw | Atromitos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 26% | 23% |
| Market | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| Published | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.68, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Aris Thessalonikis, 28 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aris Thessalonikis | 1.79 | 1.66 | -0.14 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.75 | +0.15 |
| Atromitos | 4.39 | 5.05 | +0.66 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.85
- Attack rating (Aris Thessalonikis / Atromitos)
- 1.18 / 1.02
- Defence rating (Aris Thessalonikis / Atromitos)
- 0.96 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Aris Thessalonikis goals. Columns: Atromitos goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aris Thessalonikis | 55% | 1.81 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.97 | |
| Atromitos | 20% | 5.11 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.84 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.78 |
| No | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Aris Thessalonikis or draw) | 80% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Atromitos) | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Handicap -1 | Aris Thessalonikis win by 2+ | 29% | 3.43 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Aris Thessalonikis and Atromitos recent form
Aris Thessalonikis
3W 2D 1L
Atromitos
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Aris Thessalonikis at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atromitos away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Aris Thessalonikis at home only, Atromitos away only.
Aris Thessalonikis vs Atromitos head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Aris Thessalonikis 5 · draws 4 · Atromitos 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Aris Thessalonikis | 0-0 | Atromitos | Super League 1 |
| 2025-09-13 | Atromitos | 1-2 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 |
| 2025-04-26 | Atromitos | 1-1 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 |
| 2025-04-13 | Aris Thessalonikis | 1-0 | Atromitos | Super League 1 |
| 2024-12-07 | Aris Thessalonikis | 2-1 | Atromitos | Super League 1 |
| 2024-08-18 | Atromitos | 1-1 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 |
| 2024-02-17 | Atromitos | 0-2 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 |
| 2023-11-05 | Aris Thessalonikis | 1-3 | Atromitos | Super League 1 |
| 2023-02-26 | Aris Thessalonikis | 2-1 | Atromitos | Super League 1 |
| 2022-11-05 | Atromitos | 0-0 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
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- AEK Athens FC vs Panetolikos — team news & stats 2026-10-24
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- Volos NFC vs Panathinaikos 2026-10-25
- OFI vs PAOK — team news & stats 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Aris Thessalonikis, previous: Kifisia v Aris Thessalonikis analysis
- Aris Thessalonikis, next: Panathinaikos v Aris Thessalonikis analysis
- Atromitos, next: Volos NFC vs Atromitos: odds and pick