Guastatoya vs Mixco preview
In the upcoming match between Guastatoya and Mixco, the 1X2 probabilities show Guastatoya at 66%, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 (10%). Guastatoya has an expected goals figure of 2.31, while Mixco sits at 1.00. This suggests a strong offensive performance from Guastatoya.
However, the recent form indicates that while Guastatoya has won 4 of their last 5 matches, Mixco has only managed 2 wins in their last 5 games. Additionally, Mixco has won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head encounters. If Mixco can improve their scoring, it could challenge the expectations for Over 2.5 goals (64%) and both teams to score (58%).
Guastatoya vs Mixco: model vs market
| Source | Guastatoya | Draw | Mixco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66% | 20% | 14% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 66% | 20% | 14% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.31 vs 1.00.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Guastatoya and Mixco expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.32
- Attack rating (Guastatoya / Mixco)
- 1.05 / 1.20
- Defence rating (Guastatoya / Mixco)
- 0.98 / 1.35
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Guastatoya vs Mixco score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Guastatoya goals. Columns: Mixco goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Guastatoya vs Mixco goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Guastatoya vs Mixco
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guastatoya | 66% | 1.52 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.97 | |
| Mixco | 14% | 7.08 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.73 |
| No | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Guastatoya or draw) | 86% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Mixco) | 34% | 2.92 | |
| Handicap -1 | Guastatoya win by 2+ | 44% | 2.28 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Guastatoya and Mixco recent form
Guastatoya
4W 1D 1L
Mixco
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Guastatoya at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-1
- Win rate
- 71%
- Goals for / match
- 1.86
- Goals against / match
- 0.86
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 8 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mixco away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-5
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.29
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Guastatoya at home only, Mixco away only.
Guastatoya vs Mixco head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Guastatoya 2 · draws 0 · Mixco 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Mixco | 4-2 | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-03-07 | Mixco | 1-0 | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-01-23 | Guastatoya | 2-0 | Mixco | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-11-06 | Guastatoya | 1-0 | Mixco | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-08-30 | Mixco | 2-0 | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
- Xelajú vs Municipal — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Comunicaciones vs Antigua GFC 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Guastatoya, previous: Municipal v Guastatoya analysis
- Mixco, previous: Mixco – Municipal, 2026-10-21