Suchitepéquez vs Aurora preview
In the fixture between Suchitepéquez and Aurora, the 1X2 probabilities show Suchitepéquez at 40%, Aurora at 36%, and a draw at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance. Both teams are expected to score, with a 70% probability for both teams to score and a 69% chance of Over 2.5 goals.
Suchitepéquez's recent form includes 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Aurora has won 4 of their last 6. The expected goals are 1.82 for Suchitepéquez and 1.74 for Aurora, indicating a close contest. However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome.
Suchitepéquez vs Aurora: model vs market
| Source | Suchitepéquez | Draw | Aurora |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 24% | 36% |
| Market | 51% | 27% | 23% |
| Published | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Edge | -3% | -1% | +3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Suchitepéquez vs Aurora odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Suchitepéquez, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Suchitepéquez | 2.12 | 1.79 | -0.32 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.40 | +0.15 |
| Aurora | 2.96 | 4.03 | +1.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Suchitepéquez and Aurora expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.56
- Attack rating (Suchitepéquez / Aurora)
- 0.95 / 1.30
- Defence rating (Suchitepéquez / Aurora)
- 1.57 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Suchitepéquez vs Aurora score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Suchitepéquez goals. Columns: Aurora goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Suchitepéquez vs Aurora goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Suchitepéquez vs Aurora
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Suchitepéquez | 48% | 2.08 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Aurora | 26% | 3.85 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.22 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.43 |
| No | 30% | 3.33 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Suchitepéquez or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Aurora) | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Handicap -1 | Suchitepéquez win by 2+ | 22% | 4.60 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Suchitepéquez and Aurora recent form
Suchitepéquez
0W 3D 3L
Aurora
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Suchitepéquez at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-5-1
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 1.57
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 1 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 15 matches.
Aurora away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-6
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 2.29
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 7 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Suchitepéquez at home only, Aurora away only.
Suchitepéquez vs Aurora head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Suchitepéquez 4 · draws 1 · Aurora 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Aurora | 3-2 | Suchitepéquez | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2024-05-06 | Suchitepéquez | 3-1 | Aurora | Primera Division |
| 2024-05-02 | Aurora | 1-1 | Suchitepéquez | Primera Division |
| 2023-11-19 | Suchitepéquez | 0-1 | Aurora | Primera Division |
| 2023-11-16 | Aurora | 0-1 | Suchitepéquez | Primera Division |
| 2023-05-14 | Suchitepéquez | 2-0 | Aurora | Primera Division |
| 2023-05-11 | Aurora | 2-1 | Suchitepéquez | Primera Division |
| 2022-10-30 | Aurora | 3-2 | Suchitepéquez | Primera Division |
| 2022-10-27 | Suchitepéquez | 2-1 | Aurora | Primera Division |
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
- Xelajú vs Municipal — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Comunicaciones vs Antigua GFC 2026-10-25
- Guastatoya v Mixco — match page 2026-10-25
- Cobán Imperial vs Marquense — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Deportivo San Pedro vs Malacateco 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Suchitepéquez, previous: Marquense v Suchitepéquez analysis
- Suchitepéquez, next: Cobán Imperial – Suchitepéquez, 2026-10-28
- Aurora, previous: Aurora vs Deportivo San Pedro: odds and pick
- Aurora, next: Malacateco v Aurora analysis