Xelajú vs Municipal preview
Xelajú has a 54% chance to win against Municipal, who have only a 20% probability of victory. The model suggests a likely scoreline of 1-0, which aligns with Xelajú's expected goals of 1.76 compared to Municipal's 0.99. However, the recent form shows Municipal has 3 wins in their last 6 matches, which could influence the outcome.
Both teams to score stands at 53%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 52%. Xelajú's recent form includes 3 wins and 1 draw in their last 6 matches, while Municipal has 2 wins and 2 draws. This could lead to a more competitive match than the statistics suggest.
Xelajú vs Municipal: model vs market
| Source | Xelajú | Draw | Municipal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 0.99.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Xelajú and Municipal expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.76
- Attack rating (Xelajú / Municipal)
- 1.41 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Xelajú / Municipal)
- 1.00 / 0.76
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Xelajú vs Municipal score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Xelajú goals. Columns: Municipal goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Xelajú vs Municipal goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Xelajú vs Municipal
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Xelajú | 54% | 1.84 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.90 | |
| Municipal | 20% | 4.99 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.87 |
| No | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Xelajú or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Municipal) | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | Xelajú win by 2+ | 31% | 3.21 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Xelajú and Municipal recent form
Xelajú
3W 1D 2L
Municipal
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Xelajú at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-1
- Win rate
- 71%
- Goals for / match
- 2.43
- Goals against / match
- 0.86
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
Municipal away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Xelajú at home only, Municipal away only.
Xelajú vs Municipal head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Xelajú 1 · draws 1 · Municipal 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Municipal | 2-0 | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-05-24 | Xelajú | 1-2 | Municipal | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-05-17 | Municipal | 4-1 | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-03-20 | Xelajú | 3-1 | Municipal | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-01-29 | Municipal | 1-0 | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-08-24 | Municipal | 1-1 | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
- Guastatoya v Mixco — match page 2026-10-24
- Comunicaciones vs Antigua GFC 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Xelajú, previous: Antigua GFC vs Xelajú prediction
- Municipal, previous: Mixco – Municipal, 2026-10-21