Mixco vs Xelajú preview
In the upcoming match between Mixco and Xelajú, the 1X2 probabilities show Mixco at 61%, while Xelajú sits at 18%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, occurring at a rate of 10%. Mixco's expected goals are 2.26, compared to Xelajú's 1.19, indicating a stronger attacking performance from Mixco.
However, the recent form may affect the outcome. Mixco has drawn three of its last five matches, while Xelajú has alternated wins and losses, winning two of its last five. Additionally, the head-to-head record shows Mixco with 3 wins, Xelajú with 4 wins, and 3 draws in their last 10 encounters. This could lead to unexpected results, particularly in terms of both teams to score, which our model estimates at 63%.
Mixco vs Xelajú: model vs market
| Source | Mixco | Draw | Xelajú |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62% | 21% | 17% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 62% | 21% | 17% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.27 vs 1.13.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Mixco and Xelajú expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.40
- Attack rating (Mixco / Xelajú)
- 1.36 / 1.25
- Defence rating (Mixco / Xelajú)
- 1.06 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mixco vs Xelajú score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mixco goals. Columns: Xelajú goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mixco vs Xelajú goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mixco vs Xelajú
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mixco | 62% | 1.61 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.78 | |
| Xelajú | 17% | 5.92 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.95 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mixco or draw) | 83% | 1.20 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Xelajú) | 38% | 2.65 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mixco win by 2+ | 41% | 2.46 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Mixco and Xelajú recent form
Mixco
3W 3D 0L
Xelajú
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Mixco at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-2-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.12
- Goals against / match
- 0.88
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 8
- They have won 6 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 15 matches.
Xelajú away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-5
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 8
- They have won 6 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 15 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Mixco at home only, Xelajú away only.
Mixco vs Xelajú head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Mixco 3 · draws 3 · Xelajú 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Xelajú | 4-1 | Mixco | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-04-11 | Mixco | 3-1 | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-02-23 | Xelajú | 2-1 | Mixco | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-10-18 | Xelajú | 1-2 | Mixco | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-08-09 | Mixco | 2-1 | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-04-10 | Xelajú | 1-1 | Mixco | Liga Nacional |
| 2025-02-05 | Mixco | 0-0 | Xelajú | Liga Nacional |
| 2024-12-02 | Xelajú | 1-0 | Mixco | Liga Nacional |
| 2024-11-28 | Mixco | 0-0 | Xelajú | Liga Nacional |
| 2024-11-24 | Xelajú | 3-2 | Mixco | Liga Nacional |
Other Matchday 17 fixtures
- Cobán Imperial v Suchitepéquez — match page 2026-10-28
- Malacateco vs Aurora — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Municipal vs Comunicaciones 2026-10-29
- Antigua GFC vs Deportivo San Pedro 2026-10-30
- Marquense v Guastatoya — match page 2026-10-30
Before and after this match
- Mixco, previous: Guastatoya vs Mixco: odds and pick
- Xelajú, previous: Xelajú vs Municipal prediction