Xelajú vs Marquense preview
In the fixture between Xelajú and Marquense, Xelajú has a 64% probability to win, while Marquense stands at 13%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs with a 15% chance. This suggests a tight match, with Xelajú expected to dominate possession and create more opportunities, reflected in their expected goals of 1.61 compared to Marquense's 0.69.
However, the potential for a different outcome exists. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Xelajú's last six matches resulting in 3 wins, while Marquense has 3 wins as well. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals sit at 40%, and both teams to score is at 41%, indicating the possibility of a more open game than expected.
Xelajú vs Marquense: model vs market
| Source | Xelajú | Draw | Marquense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58% | 27% | 15% |
| Market | 65% | 22% | 13% |
| Published | 63% | 23% | 13% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.61 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.44, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Xelajú vs Marquense odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Xelajú, 2 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Xelajú | 1.38 | 1.40 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 4.20 | 4.20 | +0.00 |
| Marquense | 7.35 | 7.00 | -0.35 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Xelajú and Marquense expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.29
- Attack rating (Xelajú / Marquense)
- 1.11 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Xelajú / Marquense)
- 0.93 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Xelajú vs Marquense score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Xelajú goals. Columns: Marquense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Xelajú vs Marquense goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Xelajú vs Marquense
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Xelajú | 63% | 1.57 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.34 | |
| Marquense | 13% | 7.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.45 |
| No | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Xelajú or draw) | 87% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Marquense) | 37% | 2.74 | |
| Handicap -1 | Xelajú win by 2+ | 33% | 3.08 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Xelajú and Marquense recent form
Xelajú
3W 1D 2L
Marquense
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Xelajú at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-1-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 8
- They have won 7 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 17 matches.
Marquense away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-4
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 1.38
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 8
- They have won 7 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 17 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Xelajú at home only, Marquense away only.
Xelajú vs Marquense head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Xelajú 5 · draws 2 · Marquense 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Marquense | 0-4 | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-05-04 | Xelajú | 2-0 | Marquense | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-04-30 | Marquense | 1-1 | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-04-02 | Marquense | 1-0 | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-02-16 | Xelajú | 4-2 | Marquense | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-11-06 | Marquense | 1-0 | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-09-01 | Xelajú | 3-1 | Marquense | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-04-21 | Marquense | 1-0 | Xelajú | Liga Nacional |
| 2025-02-17 | Xelajú | 0-0 | Marquense | Liga Nacional |
| 2024-10-20 | Marquense | 1-2 | Xelajú | Liga Nacional |
Other Matchday 18 fixtures
- Aurora vs Antigua GFC — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Deportivo San Pedro vs Municipal 2026-11-01
- Guastatoya vs Cobán Imperial 2026-11-02
- Comunicaciones vs Mixco — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- Suchitepéquez v Malacateco — match page 2026-11-03
Before and after this match
- Xelajú, previous: Mixco vs Xelajú: odds and pick
- Xelajú, next: Cobán Imperial – Xelajú, 2026-11-08
- Marquense, previous: Marquense v Guastatoya analysis
- Marquense, next: Marquense v Comunicaciones analysis