Cobán Imperial vs Xelajú preview
In the match between Cobán Imperial and Xelajú, the 1X2 probabilities show Cobán Imperial at 57%, while Xelajú stands at 19%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with Cobán Imperial's expected goals at 1.92 compared to Xelajú's 1.03.
While Cobán Imperial has a stronger recent form with 3 wins in their last 6 matches, Xelajú's recent performance includes 3 wins as well. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are each at 56%, indicating potential for an open game. However, Xelajú's ability to upset could impact the predicted outcome, as they have a slight edge in their last 10 encounters with 4 wins.
Cobán Imperial vs Xelajú: model vs market
| Source | Cobán Imperial | Draw | Xelajú |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Cobán Imperial and Xelajú expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.95
- Attack rating (Cobán Imperial / Xelajú)
- 1.27 / 1.11
- Defence rating (Cobán Imperial / Xelajú)
- 1.09 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cobán Imperial vs Xelajú score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cobán Imperial goals. Columns: Xelajú goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cobán Imperial vs Xelajú goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cobán Imperial vs Xelajú
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cobán Imperial | 57% | 1.75 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.16 | |
| Xelajú | 19% | 5.30 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.79 |
| No | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cobán Imperial or draw) | 81% | 1.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Xelajú) | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cobán Imperial win by 2+ | 34% | 2.92 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Cobán Imperial and Xelajú recent form
Cobán Imperial
4W 0D 2L
Xelajú
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cobán Imperial at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-1-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.89
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 9
- They have won 6 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 17 matches.
Xelajú away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-5
- Win rate
- 11%
- Goals for / match
- 1.11
- Goals against / match
- 1.56
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 9
- They have won 7 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 17 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cobán Imperial at home only, Xelajú away only.
Cobán Imperial vs Xelajú head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Cobán Imperial 3 · draws 3 · Xelajú 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Xelajú | 0-0 | Cobán Imperial | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-04-26 | Xelajú | 2-1 | Cobán Imperial | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-03-05 | Cobán Imperial | 1-1 | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-11-22 | Xelajú | 3-1 | Cobán Imperial | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-09-16 | Cobán Imperial | 2-1 | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-04-25 | Xelajú | 2-0 | Cobán Imperial | Liga Nacional |
| 2025-02-22 | Cobán Imperial | 1-0 | Xelajú | Liga Nacional |
| 2024-12-22 | Xelajú | 3-0 | Cobán Imperial | Liga Nacional |
| 2024-12-14 | Cobán Imperial | 2-0 | Xelajú | Liga Nacional |
| 2024-09-28 | Cobán Imperial | 0-0 | Xelajú | Liga Nacional |
Other Matchday 19 fixtures
- Guastatoya vs Suchitepéquez — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Mixco vs Deportivo San Pedro — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Municipal vs Aurora 2026-11-07
- Marquense v Comunicaciones — match page 2026-11-08
- Antigua GFC vs Malacateco 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Cobán Imperial, previous: Guastatoya v Cobán Imperial analysis
- Xelajú, previous: Xelajú vs Marquense: odds and pick