Xelajú vs Guastatoya preview
In the fixture between Xelajú and Guastatoya, the 1X2 probabilities show Xelajú at 63%, while Guastatoya sits at 13%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 13% chance. Xelajú's expected goals are 1.81, significantly higher than Guastatoya's 0.71.
However, the potential for a draw is present, given that 24% of the model predicts this outcome. Both teams to score is at 44%, suggesting that while Xelajú is favored, Guastatoya could find the net. Recent form also indicates Xelajú has been stronger, winning 4 of their last 6 matches, compared to Guastatoya's mixed results.
Xelajú vs Guastatoya: model vs market
| Source | Xelajú | Draw | Guastatoya |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63% | 24% | 13% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 63% | 24% | 13% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 0.71.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Xelajú and Guastatoya expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.52
- Attack rating (Xelajú / Guastatoya)
- 1.13 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Xelajú / Guastatoya)
- 0.74 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Xelajú vs Guastatoya score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Xelajú goals. Columns: Guastatoya goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Xelajú vs Guastatoya goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Xelajú vs Guastatoya
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Xelajú | 63% | 1.59 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.12 | |
| Guastatoya | 13% | 7.67 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.16 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.29 |
| No | 56% | 1.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Xelajú or draw) | 87% | 1.15 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Guastatoya) | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Handicap -1 | Xelajú win by 2+ | 38% | 2.66 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Xelajú and Guastatoya recent form
Xelajú
4W 1D 1L
Guastatoya
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Xelajú at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-1-1
- Win rate
- 78%
- Goals for / match
- 2.22
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 9
- They have won 8 of their 18 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 18 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 18 matches.
Guastatoya away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.89
- Goals against / match
- 1.22
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 9
- They have won 8 of their 18 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 18 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 18 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Xelajú at home only, Guastatoya away only.
Xelajú vs Guastatoya head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Xelajú 4 · draws 4 · Guastatoya 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Guastatoya | 2-1 | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-03-29 | Xelajú | 1-1 | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-02-08 | Guastatoya | 1-0 | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-10-26 | Guastatoya | 1-2 | Xelajú | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-08-18 | Xelajú | 5-0 | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-04-13 | Guastatoya | 2-2 | Xelajú | Liga Nacional |
| 2025-02-09 | Xelajú | 1-0 | Guastatoya | Liga Nacional |
| 2024-09-15 | Guastatoya | 1-1 | Xelajú | Liga Nacional |
| 2024-03-17 | Guastatoya | 1-1 | Xelajú | Liga Nacional |
| 2023-10-08 | Xelajú | 2-1 | Guastatoya | Liga Nacional |
Other Matchday 20 fixtures
- Aurora vs Mixco — team news & stats 2026-11-12
- Comunicaciones vs Cobán Imperial — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Malacateco vs Municipal 2026-11-15
- Deportivo San Pedro vs Marquense 2026-11-15
- Suchitepéquez v Antigua GFC — match page 2026-11-15
Before and after this match
- Xelajú, previous: Cobán Imperial – Xelajú, 2026-11-08
- Guastatoya, previous: Guastatoya v Suchitepéquez analysis