Aurora vs Mixco preview
In the match between Aurora and Mixco, the 1X2 probabilities show Aurora at 59%, with a likely scoreline of 2-1 (10%). Aurora's expected goals stand at 2.14, while Mixco has 1.16. This suggests a strong chance for Aurora to secure a win, especially given their recent form of L-W-D-W-W-W compared to Mixco's W-L-D-W-D-W.
However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. Both teams to score is at 62%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 64%. If Mixco can improve their scoring, they might challenge Aurora's defense, which could lead to a different outcome than expected.
Aurora vs Mixco: model vs market
| Source | Aurora | Draw | Mixco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 22% | 19% |
| Market | 46% | 27% | 26% |
| Published | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Aurora below our published probability: +3.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.01, recorded — the top price across the 8 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Aurora vs Mixco odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Aurora, 4 snapshots since 2026-11-10.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aurora | 1.90 | 1.96 | +0.06 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.33 | +0.03 |
| Mixco | 3.62 | 3.44 | -0.19 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Aurora and Mixco expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.30
- Attack rating (Aurora / Mixco)
- 1.22 / 1.21
- Defence rating (Aurora / Mixco)
- 1.13 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Aurora vs Mixco score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Aurora goals. Columns: Mixco goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Aurora vs Mixco goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Aurora vs Mixco
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aurora | 49% | 2.03 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Mixco | 25% | 4.07 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Aurora or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Mixco) | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Handicap -1 | Aurora win by 2+ | 37% | 2.70 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Aurora and Mixco recent form
Aurora
4W 1D 1L
Mixco
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Aurora at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-0-3
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.56
- Goals against / match
- 1.11
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 9
- They have won 8 of their 18 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 18 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mixco away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-6
- Win rate
- 11%
- Goals for / match
- 1.22
- Goals against / match
- 2.22
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 9
- They have won 8 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 19 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 19 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Aurora at home only, Mixco away only.
Aurora vs Mixco head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Aurora 2 · draws 4 · Mixco 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Mixco | 3-2 | Aurora | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-04-19 | Mixco | 4-0 | Aurora | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-03-01 | Aurora | 1-1 | Mixco | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-11-30 | Aurora | 1-0 | Mixco | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-09-20 | Mixco | 2-2 | Aurora | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2022-03-19 | Aurora | 0-1 | Mixco | Primera Division |
| 2022-02-03 | Mixco | 1-0 | Aurora | Primera Division |
| 2021-09-18 | Mixco | 0-0 | Aurora | Primera Division |
| 2021-07-31 | Aurora | 1-0 | Mixco | Primera Division |
| 2020-12-05 | Mixco | 1-1 | Aurora | Primera Division |
Other Matchday 20 fixtures
- Comunicaciones vs Cobán Imperial — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Malacateco vs Municipal 2026-11-15
- Xelajú v Guastatoya — match page 2026-11-15
- Deportivo San Pedro vs Marquense 2026-11-15
- Suchitepéquez v Antigua GFC — match page 2026-11-15
Before and after this match
- Aurora, previous: Aurora vs Antigua GFC prediction
- Aurora, next: Municipal vs Aurora: odds and pick
- Mixco, previous: Mixco vs Deportivo San Pedro: odds and pick