Aurora vs Antigua GFC preview
In the upcoming match between Aurora and Antigua GFC, the 1X2 probabilities show Aurora at 61%, while Antigua GFC sits at 18%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, which occurs with a 10% probability. Aurora's expected goals are 2.28, compared to Antigua GFC's 1.20, suggesting a strong offensive performance from Aurora.
However, the recent form indicates some inconsistency, with Aurora's last six matches showing 2 wins and 4 losses. Antigua GFC has a mixed record with 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last six. Both teams to score has a probability of 64%, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 67%, meaning while goals are likely, the match could still yield unexpected outcomes based on current form.
Aurora vs Antigua GFC: model vs market
| Source | Aurora | Draw | Antigua GFC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61% | 21% | 18% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 61% | 21% | 18% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.28 vs 1.20.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Aurora and Antigua GFC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.48
- Attack rating (Aurora / Antigua GFC)
- 1.34 / 1.15
- Defence rating (Aurora / Antigua GFC)
- 1.21 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Aurora vs Antigua GFC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Aurora goals. Columns: Antigua GFC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Aurora vs Antigua GFC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Aurora vs Antigua GFC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aurora | 61% | 1.64 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.75 | |
| Antigua GFC | 18% | 5.51 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.07 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.57 |
| No | 36% | 2.74 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Aurora or draw) | 82% | 1.22 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Antigua GFC) | 39% | 2.55 | |
| Handicap -1 | Aurora win by 2+ | 39% | 2.53 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Aurora and Antigua GFC recent form
Aurora
3W 1D 2L
Antigua GFC
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Aurora at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-0-2
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 8
- They have won 7 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Antigua GFC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-5
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.88
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 8
- They have won 9 of their 16 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 16 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Aurora at home only, Antigua GFC away only.
Aurora vs Antigua GFC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Aurora 4 · draws 1 · Antigua GFC 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Antigua GFC | 2-1 | Aurora | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-04-04 | Aurora | 0-2 | Antigua GFC | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-02-19 | Antigua GFC | 2-0 | Aurora | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-12-18 | Antigua GFC | 4-2 | Aurora | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-12-14 | Aurora | 0-1 | Antigua GFC | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-10-26 | Antigua GFC | 1-2 | Aurora | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-08-16 | Aurora | 3-2 | Antigua GFC | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2013-03-09 | Aurora | 1-0 | Antigua GFC | Primera Division |
| 2013-01-13 | Antigua GFC | 1-1 | Aurora | Primera Division |
| 2012-11-18 | Aurora | 2-1 | Antigua GFC | Primera Division |
Other Matchday 18 fixtures
- Deportivo San Pedro vs Municipal 2026-11-01
- Guastatoya vs Cobán Imperial 2026-11-01
- Comunicaciones vs Mixco — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- Suchitepéquez v Malacateco — match page 2026-11-03
Before and after this match
- Aurora, previous: Malacateco v Aurora analysis
- Antigua GFC, previous: Antigua GFC vs Deportivo San Pedro prediction