Suchitepéquez vs Malacateco preview
In the match between Suchitepéquez and Malacateco, the 1X2 probabilities show Suchitepéquez at 47%, while Malacateco is at 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Suchitepéquez has an expected goals figure of 1.73 compared to Malacateco's 1.27, suggesting a slight edge in attack.
However, Suchitepéquez's recent form is concerning, with 1 draw and 5 losses in their last 6 matches. Malacateco has had mixed results, with 2 wins and 4 losses in their last 6 games. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 58%, and both teams to score is at 60%, indicating potential for a high-scoring match, but recent performances could impact these outcomes.
Suchitepéquez vs Malacateco: model vs market
| Source | Suchitepéquez | Draw | Malacateco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 1.27.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Suchitepéquez and Malacateco expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.00
- Attack rating (Suchitepéquez / Malacateco)
- 1.03 / 0.94
- Defence rating (Suchitepéquez / Malacateco)
- 1.58 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Suchitepéquez vs Malacateco score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Suchitepéquez goals. Columns: Malacateco goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Suchitepéquez vs Malacateco goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Suchitepéquez vs Malacateco
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Suchitepéquez | 47% | 2.13 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.88 | |
| Malacateco | 27% | 3.68 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.66 |
| No | 40% | 2.52 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Suchitepéquez or draw) | 73% | 1.37 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Malacateco) | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Handicap -1 | Suchitepéquez win by 2+ | 26% | 3.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Suchitepéquez and Malacateco recent form
Suchitepéquez
0W 3D 3L
Malacateco
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Suchitepéquez at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-6-1
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 1.62
- Goals against / match
- 1.62
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 8
- They have won 1 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 15 matches.
Malacateco away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-6
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.88
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 8
- They have won 5 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 15 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Suchitepéquez at home only, Malacateco away only.
Suchitepéquez vs Malacateco head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Suchitepéquez 4 · draws 2 · Malacateco 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Malacateco | 2-0 | Suchitepéquez | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2018-04-04 | Suchitepéquez | 3-1 | Malacateco | Liga Nacional |
| 2018-02-04 | Malacateco | 1-0 | Suchitepéquez | Liga Nacional |
| 2017-10-01 | Suchitepéquez | 3-1 | Malacateco | Liga Nacional |
| 2017-07-30 | Malacateco | 3-0 | Suchitepéquez | Liga Nacional |
| 2017-03-19 | Suchitepéquez | 2-1 | Malacateco | Liga Nacional |
| 2017-01-22 | Malacateco | 1-0 | Suchitepéquez | Liga Nacional |
| 2016-11-27 | Suchitepéquez | 1-1 | Malacateco | Liga Nacional |
| 2016-09-21 | Malacateco | 2-2 | Suchitepéquez | Liga Nacional |
| 2016-05-22 | Suchitepéquez | 2-0 | Malacateco | Liga Nacional |
Other Matchday 18 fixtures
- Aurora vs Antigua GFC — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Deportivo San Pedro vs Municipal 2026-11-01
- Guastatoya vs Cobán Imperial 2026-11-01
- Comunicaciones vs Mixco — team news & stats 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Suchitepéquez, previous: Cobán Imperial – Suchitepéquez, 2026-10-28
- Malacateco, previous: Malacateco v Aurora analysis