Antigua GFC vs Malacateco preview
In the upcoming match between Antigua GFC and Malacateco, the 1X2 probabilities show a strong favor for Antigua GFC at 67%, compared to Malacateco's 10%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a 15% chance. Antigua GFC has a solid expected goals figure of 1.88, while Malacateco sits at 0.59, indicating a significant difference in attacking potential.
However, the match could deviate from this expectation. The probability for Over 2.5 goals is 45%, and both teams to score stands at 39%, suggesting that while Antigua GFC is favored, there is still a chance for a more open game. Recent form shows Antigua GFC with 4 wins in their last 5 matches, while Malacateco has struggled with 3 losses in their last 5.
Antigua GFC vs Malacateco: model vs market
| Source | Antigua GFC | Draw | Malacateco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67% | 23% | 10% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 67% | 23% | 10% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 0.59.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Antigua GFC and Malacateco expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.47
- Attack rating (Antigua GFC / Malacateco)
- 1.15 / 0.78
- Defence rating (Antigua GFC / Malacateco)
- 0.89 / 1.01
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Antigua GFC vs Malacateco score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Antigua GFC goals. Columns: Malacateco goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Antigua GFC vs Malacateco goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 39%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Antigua GFC vs Malacateco
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Antigua GFC | 67% | 1.48 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.41 | |
| Malacateco | 10% | 10.03 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.22 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39% | 2.57 |
| No | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Antigua GFC or draw) | 90% | 1.11 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Malacateco) | 33% | 3.06 | |
| Handicap -1 | Antigua GFC win by 2+ | 42% | 2.39 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Antigua GFC and Malacateco recent form
Antigua GFC
4W 1D 1L
Malacateco
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Antigua GFC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-1-0
- Win rate
- 89%
- Goals for / match
- 2.11
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 9
- They have won 10 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Malacateco away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-7
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.78
- Goals against / match
- 2.11
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 9
- They have won 5 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 17 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Antigua GFC at home only, Malacateco away only.
Antigua GFC vs Malacateco head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Antigua GFC 5 · draws 3 · Malacateco 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Malacateco | 0-2 | Antigua GFC | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-04-20 | Antigua GFC | 2-1 | Malacateco | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-03-01 | Malacateco | 2-2 | Antigua GFC | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-11-30 | Antigua GFC | 2-0 | Malacateco | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-09-21 | Malacateco | 3-1 | Antigua GFC | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-04-10 | Malacateco | 1-1 | Antigua GFC | Liga Nacional |
| 2025-02-06 | Antigua GFC | 2-3 | Malacateco | Liga Nacional |
| 2024-09-15 | Antigua GFC | 3-1 | Malacateco | Liga Nacional |
| 2024-03-23 | Malacateco | 2-2 | Antigua GFC | Liga Nacional |
| 2023-11-02 | Antigua GFC | 4-2 | Malacateco | Liga Nacional |
Other Matchday 19 fixtures
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- Mixco vs Deportivo San Pedro — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Municipal vs Aurora 2026-11-07
- Marquense v Comunicaciones — match page 2026-11-08
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Before and after this match
- Antigua GFC, previous: Aurora vs Antigua GFC prediction
- Malacateco, previous: Suchitepéquez vs Malacateco prediction