Malacateco vs Municipal preview
In the match between Malacateco and Municipal, the model gives Malacateco a 34% chance to win, while Municipal has a 29% chance. The most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 20%. Both teams have struggled for form recently, with Malacateco recording 1 win in their last 6 matches and Municipal managing 1 win in their last 6 as well.
The model suggests a low-scoring game, with Over 2.5 goals at just 23% and both teams to score at 33%. If either team improves their attacking play, it could lead to a different outcome than predicted. The expected goals are also low, with Malacateco at 0.88 and Municipal at 0.78, reflecting the tight nature of this matchup.
Malacateco vs Municipal: model vs market
| Source | Malacateco | Draw | Municipal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 37% | 29% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 34% | 37% | 29% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Malacateco and Municipal expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.66
- Attack rating (Malacateco / Municipal)
- 0.70 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Malacateco / Municipal)
- 1.02 / 0.78
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Malacateco vs Municipal score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Malacateco goals. Columns: Municipal goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Malacateco vs Municipal goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 33%
- No goals (0–0)
- 20%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Malacateco vs Municipal
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Malacateco | 34% | 2.92 |
| Draw | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Municipal | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 23% | 4.30 |
| Under 2.5 | 77% | 1.30 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33% | 3.03 |
| No | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Malacateco or draw) | 71% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 63% | 1.59 | |
| X2 (draw or Municipal) | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Handicap -1 | Malacateco win by 2+ | 12% | 8.05 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Malacateco and Municipal recent form
Malacateco
1W 1D 4L
Municipal
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Malacateco at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-2-2
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 1.22
- Goals against / match
- 0.78
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 9
- They have won 5 of their 18 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 18 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 18 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Municipal away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-4
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.78
- Goals against / match
- 0.89
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 9
- They have won 8 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 17 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Malacateco at home only, Municipal away only.
Malacateco vs Municipal head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Malacateco 1 · draws 2 · Municipal 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Municipal | 2-2 | Malacateco | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-03-29 | Municipal | 1-0 | Malacateco | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-02-07 | Malacateco | 1-3 | Municipal | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-10-25 | Municipal | 4-1 | Malacateco | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-08-16 | Malacateco | 2-3 | Municipal | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-04-06 | Malacateco | 0-1 | Municipal | Liga Nacional |
| 2025-02-01 | Municipal | 4-2 | Malacateco | Liga Nacional |
| 2024-10-27 | Malacateco | 4-0 | Municipal | Liga Nacional |
| 2024-08-11 | Municipal | 0-0 | Malacateco | Liga Nacional |
| 2024-04-28 | Municipal | 4-0 | Malacateco | Liga Nacional |
Other Matchday 20 fixtures
- Aurora vs Mixco — team news & stats 2026-11-12
- Comunicaciones vs Cobán Imperial — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Xelajú v Guastatoya — match page 2026-11-15
- Deportivo San Pedro vs Marquense 2026-11-15
- Suchitepéquez v Antigua GFC — match page 2026-11-15
Before and after this match
- Malacateco, previous: Antigua GFC vs Malacateco prediction
- Municipal, previous: Deportivo San Pedro – Municipal, 2026-11-01
- Municipal, next: Municipal vs Aurora: odds and pick