Guastatoya vs Suchitepéquez preview
Guastatoya has a 68% chance to win against Suchitepéquez, with an expected scoreline of 2-0 at 11%. The model suggests a strong possibility of Over 2.5 goals at 62% and both teams to score at 54%. Guastatoya's expected goals stand at 2.28, while Suchitepéquez has just 0.90.
However, the recent form shows Guastatoya with only 1 win in their last 5 matches, while Suchitepéquez has struggled too, with 1 draw and 5 losses. The head-to-head record is also tight, with Suchitepéquez winning 4 of the last 10 encounters. This could affect the outcome, despite the model's predictions.
Guastatoya vs Suchitepéquez: model vs market
| Source | Guastatoya | Draw | Suchitepéquez |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62% | 22% | 15% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 62% | 22% | 15% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 0.94.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Guastatoya and Suchitepéquez expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.99
- Attack rating (Guastatoya / Suchitepéquez)
- 0.90 / 1.03
- Defence rating (Guastatoya / Suchitepéquez)
- 1.07 / 1.40
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Guastatoya vs Suchitepéquez score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Guastatoya goals. Columns: Suchitepéquez goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Guastatoya vs Suchitepéquez goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Guastatoya vs Suchitepéquez
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guastatoya | 62% | 1.61 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.45 | |
| Suchitepéquez | 15% | 6.46 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.35 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.85 |
| No | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Guastatoya or draw) | 85% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Suchitepéquez) | 38% | 2.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | Guastatoya win by 2+ | 39% | 2.56 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Guastatoya and Suchitepéquez recent form
Guastatoya
0W 3D 3L
Suchitepéquez
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Guastatoya at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-3
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.22
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 9
- They have won 8 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 17 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 17 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Suchitepéquez away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-9
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 2.56
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 9
- They have won 1 of their 17 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 17 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Guastatoya at home only, Suchitepéquez away only.
Guastatoya vs Suchitepéquez head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Guastatoya 2 · draws 4 · Suchitepéquez 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Suchitepéquez | 1-1 | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2018-04-13 | Suchitepéquez | 2-0 | Guastatoya | Liga Nacional |
| 2018-02-14 | Guastatoya | 1-2 | Suchitepéquez | Liga Nacional |
| 2017-11-15 | Guastatoya | 4-1 | Suchitepéquez | Liga Nacional |
| 2017-09-10 | Suchitepéquez | 1-1 | Guastatoya | Liga Nacional |
| 2017-05-07 | Guastatoya | 2-2 | Suchitepéquez | Liga Nacional |
| 2017-03-09 | Suchitepéquez | 0-0 | Guastatoya | Liga Nacional |
| 2016-10-27 | Suchitepéquez | 0-1 | Guastatoya | Liga Nacional |
| 2016-08-07 | Guastatoya | 0-1 | Suchitepéquez | Liga Nacional |
| 2016-04-07 | Suchitepéquez | 2-1 | Guastatoya | Liga Nacional |
Other Matchday 19 fixtures
- Mixco vs Deportivo San Pedro — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Municipal vs Aurora 2026-11-07
- Marquense v Comunicaciones — match page 2026-11-08
- Cobán Imperial v Xelajú — match page 2026-11-08
- Antigua GFC vs Malacateco 2026-11-09
Before and after this match
- Guastatoya, previous: Guastatoya v Cobán Imperial analysis
- Suchitepéquez, previous: Suchitepéquez vs Malacateco prediction