Guastatoya vs Cobán Imperial preview
Guastatoya faces Cobán Imperial with a 56% chance of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs 10% of the time in predictions. Guastatoya's expected goals stand at 1.97, while Cobán Imperial's is lower at 1.14.
While Guastatoya has a stronger probability to win, the match could see a draw or Cobán Imperial pulling an upset, given their recent form of 3 wins in the last 5 matches. Additionally, both teams have a 59% chance of scoring, and there is a 60% likelihood of Over 2.5 goals, suggesting an open game could unfold.
Guastatoya vs Cobán Imperial: model vs market
| Source | Guastatoya | Draw | Cobán Imperial |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 24% | 21% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 56% | 24% | 21% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 1.14.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Guastatoya and Cobán Imperial expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.11
- Attack rating (Guastatoya / Cobán Imperial)
- 1.02 / 1.20
- Defence rating (Guastatoya / Cobán Imperial)
- 1.10 / 1.17
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Guastatoya vs Cobán Imperial score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Guastatoya goals. Columns: Cobán Imperial goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Guastatoya vs Cobán Imperial goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Guastatoya vs Cobán Imperial
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guastatoya | 56% | 1.79 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.22 | |
| Cobán Imperial | 21% | 4.86 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.50 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.68 |
| No | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Guastatoya or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Cobán Imperial) | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Handicap -1 | Guastatoya win by 2+ | 34% | 2.98 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Guastatoya and Cobán Imperial recent form
Guastatoya
2W 2D 2L
Cobán Imperial
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Guastatoya at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-2
- Win rate
- 62%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.12
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 8
- They have won 8 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cobán Imperial away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-5
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.88
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 8
- They have won 4 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 15 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Guastatoya at home only, Cobán Imperial away only.
Guastatoya vs Cobán Imperial head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Guastatoya 4 · draws 3 · Cobán Imperial 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Cobán Imperial | 0-1 | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-04-12 | Cobán Imperial | 1-1 | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-02-22 | Guastatoya | 2-0 | Cobán Imperial | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-10-04 | Cobán Imperial | 2-1 | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-07-27 | Guastatoya | 0-1 | Cobán Imperial | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-04-02 | Cobán Imperial | 0-0 | Guastatoya | Liga Nacional |
| 2025-01-30 | Guastatoya | 4-0 | Cobán Imperial | Liga Nacional |
| 2024-11-24 | Guastatoya | 2-0 | Cobán Imperial | Liga Nacional |
| 2024-08-31 | Cobán Imperial | 3-0 | Guastatoya | Liga Nacional |
| 2024-04-21 | Cobán Imperial | 3-3 | Guastatoya | Liga Nacional |
Other Matchday 18 fixtures
- Aurora vs Antigua GFC — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Deportivo San Pedro vs Municipal 2026-11-01
- Comunicaciones vs Mixco — team news & stats 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Guastatoya, previous: Marquense v Guastatoya analysis
- Cobán Imperial, previous: Cobán Imperial – Suchitepéquez, 2026-10-28