Marquense vs Guastatoya preview
In the fixture between Marquense and Guastatoya, the 1X2 probabilities show Marquense at 53%, while Guastatoya sits at 18%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 14% chance. Marquense has an expected goals figure of 1.50, compared to Guastatoya's 0.78, indicating a stronger attacking potential.
However, recent form could influence the outcome. Marquense has a mixed record with 2 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 matches, while Guastatoya has been more consistent, with 4 wins in their last 6 games. Additionally, both teams to score stands at 43%, which suggests that while Marquense may be favored, Guastatoya could still find the net.
Marquense vs Guastatoya: model vs market
| Source | Marquense | Draw | Guastatoya |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 25% | 15% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 60% | 25% | 15% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Marquense and Guastatoya expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.51
- Attack rating (Marquense / Guastatoya)
- 0.96 / 1.02
- Defence rating (Marquense / Guastatoya)
- 0.88 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Marquense vs Guastatoya score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Marquense goals. Columns: Guastatoya goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Marquense vs Guastatoya goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Marquense vs Guastatoya
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Marquense | 60% | 1.68 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.94 | |
| Guastatoya | 15% | 6.68 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.18 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.21 |
| No | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Marquense or draw) | 85% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Guastatoya) | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | Marquense win by 2+ | 35% | 2.88 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Marquense and Guastatoya recent form
Marquense
3W 2D 1L
Guastatoya
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Marquense at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 8
- They have won 7 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 15 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
Guastatoya away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-3
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.38
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 8
- They have won 8 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Marquense at home only, Guastatoya away only.
Marquense vs Guastatoya head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Marquense 1 · draws 1 · Guastatoya 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Guastatoya | 1-2 | Marquense | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-04-26 | Guastatoya | 4-0 | Marquense | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2026-03-05 | Marquense | 2-2 | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-11-23 | Guastatoya | 5-0 | Marquense | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
| 2025-09-18 | Marquense | 0-2 | Guastatoya | Guatemala Liga Nacional |
Other Matchday 17 fixtures
- Cobán Imperial v Suchitepéquez — match page 2026-10-28
- Malacateco vs Aurora — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Municipal vs Comunicaciones 2026-10-29
- Mixco vs Xelajú — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Antigua GFC vs Deportivo San Pedro 2026-10-30
Before and after this match
- Marquense, previous: Cobán Imperial – Marquense, 2026-10-25
- Guastatoya, previous: Guastatoya vs Mixco: odds and pick